水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(4)：466-476,11.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240348
海河流域500年尺度降水周期性分析与预测
Analysis of 500-year precipitation periodicity and prediction in Haihe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Periodicity is a fundamental characteristic of precipitation sequences.There has been a long-standing debate on whether the periodic analysis based on data from station sequences over the past 60 years can represent the true regional precipitation cycles,making future predictions less convincing.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to reconstruct precipitation sequences over longer periods and conduct periodic analyses.This study,based on the Long Short-Term Memory(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)algorithm,combined with historical records of drought and flood levels,as well as station monitoring data,reconstructed a 546-year precipitation sequence in the Haihe River Basin and analyzed the periodic variations and future trends of precipitation.The main results are as follows.(1)A drought-flood-precipitation model based on the LSTM algorithm was established,reconstructing the precipitation sequence in the Haihe River Basin from 1477 to 2022.(2)The 546-year precipitation sequence reveals three signifi-cant cycles in the Haihe River Basin:a 33-year cycle,a 66-year cycle,and a 17-year cycle.Currently,the domi-nant cycle is the 33-year,but the amplitude signal of the 66-year cycle is strengthening.The PDO index shows a 64-year periodic variation,providing a basis for the intense amplitude of the 66-year precipitation cycle.(3)At present,precipitation in the Haihe River Basin is in a period of above-average rainfall.According to the 33-year cycle,it is predicted that there is a 75％probability that the above-average rainfall period in the Haihe River Basin will continue for 4 to 8 years since 2022,followed by a below-average rainfall period,which is expected to last approximately 15 to 18 years with an 86％probability.Adequate preparedness for water security in the Haihe River Basin is essential to meet the severe challenges posed by drought cycles.关键词
海河流域/LSTM模型/降水重建/降水周期/预测Key words
Haihe River Basin/LSTM/precipitation reconstruction/precipitation periodicity/prediction分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
谭伟丽,赵勇,王庆明,刘蓉..海河流域500年尺度降水周期性分析与预测[J].水利学报,2025,56(4):466-476,11.基金项目
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093) （52025093）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
