中国生态农业学报（中英文）2025，Vol.33Issue(5)：872-882,11.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20240491
基于DNDC模型的气候变化下长期施肥对紫色土区玉米产量和土壤有机碳影响的分析
Analysis of the effect of long-term fertilization on summer maize yield and soil organic carbon in purple soil areas under climate change based on the DNDC model
摘要
Abstract
Dynamic changes in the soil organic carbon(SOC)storage in farmland are closely related to fertilization strategies and cli-mate change.To explore fertilization strategies for increasing the crop yield and sequestering carbon under climate change,this study used summer maize farmland in purple soil areas as the research object.The Denitrification-Decomposition(DNDC)model was cali-brated and validated using long-term-positioning monitoring experiments,and the calibrated DNDC model was combined with future climate data from the CMIP6 model to study the effects of different fertilization measures(CK:control with no fertilization;T1:com-bined application of organic and chemical fertilizers;T2:chemical fertilizer application;T3:increased chemical fertilizer application)on summer maize yield and SOC storage under three future scenarios(baseline,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios).Results showed that under both SSP scenarios,the precipitation and temperature in the study area showed an upward trend over time,with the SSP5-8.5 scenario showing more pronounced upward trends in precipitation and temperature.The mean bias error(MBE)between meas-ured and simulated maize yield and surface SOC content across treatments showed satisfactory agreement,with normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)of 0.07-0.19 and coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.74-0.98,respectively,indicating a good simulation performance and be able to simulate summer maize yield and SOC in purple soil areas of the model.Under the T1 treatment,there was no significant difference in SOC storage under various future scenarios in most eras,and climate change had a relatively small impact on the yield and SOC storage under combined application of organic and chemical fertilizers.Under CK treatment,the maize yields under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios increased significantly compared to that under the baseline scenario;however,the maize yield under the two SSP scenarios decreased significantly treated with chemical fertilizer alone.Under the CK,T2,and T3 treatments,the SOC storage under each scenario showed a decreasing trend over time,whereas under the T1 treatment,the SOC stor-age under each scenario showed an increasing trend over time.By 2100,the SOC storage of each treatment showed a trend of T1＞T3 ≈ T2＞CK.Under different fertilization measures,by 2100,the SOC loss under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is higher than that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,i.e.,the high emission scenario leads to pronounced SOC loss.Research has shown that under future climate change,although conventional fertilization methods can ensure stable crop yields,they are not conducive to carbon sequestration in farmland.The combination of organic and chemical fertilizers is a more suitable fertilization management mode for achieving carbon sequestration and increased yield in purple soil farmland.关键词
反硝化-分解模型(DNDC)/CMIP6/气候变化/未来情景/长期施肥/有机无机肥配施/土壤有机碳Key words
Denitrification-Decomposition(DNDC)model/CMIP6/climate change/future scenario/long-term fertilization/com-bined application of organic and chemical fertilizers/soil organic carbon分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
宋健鸿,李天阳,卢佳怡,何丙辉,张高宁,李清藐,徐婷..基于DNDC模型的气候变化下长期施肥对紫色土区玉米产量和土壤有机碳影响的分析[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2025,33(5):872-882,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U21A20187)、水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022078)、重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0385)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项(SWU-KT22060)、重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目(KJQN202100212)和重庆市大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(S202310635058)资助 This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A20187),the Major Science and Technology Project of the Mini-stry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China(SKS-2022078),the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0385),the Basic Research Funds for Central Universities of China(SWU-KT22060),the Education Commission Science and Technology Re-search Project of Chongqing(KJQN202100212),and the Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program of Chongqing University(S202310635058). （U21A20187）
