中国生态农业学报（中英文）2025，Vol.33Issue(5)：960-972,13.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20240617
河北省耕地"非粮化"时空分布特征及驱动因素研究
Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the rapid expansion of"non-grain"cultivated land in China has become a significant factor affecting food security.From the perspective of national food security,elucidating the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province,is of great importance for preventing and controlling of"non-grain"cultivated land,and optimizing cultivated land use.This study employs a combination of spatial autocorrelation,migration of gravity center,and standard deviation ellipse model and geodetector to comprehensively analyze the spatial-temporal changes of the"non-grain"cultiv-ated land and its driving factors in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020.The results showed that:1)The average values of"non-grain"rates of cultivated land in Hebei Province in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 were 0.23,0.24,0.27,0.26,and 0.20,respec-tively,demonstrating an overall trend of initial increase followed by a decrease.2)The"non-grain"rates of cultivated land exhibited a spatial pattern of higher levels in the southeastern(Xingtai and Hengshui),northeastern(Tangshan and Qinhuangdao),and northwest-ern(Chengde and Zhangjiakou)regions of the Hebei Province,whereas it remained comparatively lower in other areas.The global Moran's Ⅰ index showed an initial increase,followed by a decrease,then a resurgence.3)Over the past two decades,the clustering of"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province has primarily been characterized by low-low and high-high clusters.The standard devia-tion ellipse and the gravity center of"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2015,with a significant northward shift since 2015.4)The"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province is a complex phenomenon driven by multiple factors.The natural endowment and production condition of cultivated land played a dominant role in the spatial differenti-ation of"non-grain"cultivated land in Hebei Province,while the impact of economic level on"non-grain"cultivated land progress-ively intensified.In the northwestern mountainous area,elevation has the greatest impact on"non-grain"cultivation land,while in the southeastern plain area,economic factors such as GDP per capita and the urban-rural income gap had a greater impact.The results will further consolidate the achievements in the management of"non-grain"cultivated land in the province by analyzing the spati-otemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors.Subsequently,a reference framework will be developed to help government to formulate precise prevention and control measures for the"non-grain"cultivated land.关键词
耕地"非粮化"/空间自相关/地理探测器/驱动因素/河北省Key words
"non-grain"cultivated land/spatial autocorrelation/geodetector/driving factor/Hebei Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
薄贺飞,尚国琲,张玉翠,张宇,高军科,郭晓楠..河北省耕地"非粮化"时空分布特征及驱动因素研究[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2025,33(5):960-972,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB3903505)和河北省自然科学基金面上项目(C2023403003)资助 This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB3903505),and Hebei Natural Science Founda-tion General Project(C2023403003). （2022YFB3903505）
