生态环境学报2025，Vol.34Issue(5)：688-698,11.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.05.003
澜沧江-湄公河流域生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应
The Response of Ecological Service Value to Land Use Change in Lancang-Mekong River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Lancang-Mekong River(LMR)is the longest river in Southeast Asia.A broad variety of ecosystems is present in the river basin,including alpine grasslands,meadows,lakes,tropical rainforests,and mangroves,which provide local people with food,wood,and other important services.In recent years,in the context of jointly promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road initiated by China,practical cooperation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(Asean)has been expanding.One of the important achievements was the implementation of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Action Plan(2023‒2027),which emphasized the cooperation of ecological protection and forestry.Under these circumstances,scientifically evaluating the ecosystem service value(ESV)of the river basin,revealing its temporal and spatial response patterns to land use changes,and identifying the key driving factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of ESV have become of great significance for formulating reasonable development and protection strategies and promoting sustainable development in the region.This study focuses on the LMR Basin.First,a CV-Markov model was constructed to simulate future land-use changes in the basin under different development scenarios,and a modified equivalent factor method was introduced to evaluate the ESV of the basin.Second,the special-temporal patterns of ESV under different land-use scenarios were analyzed and revealed based on spatial analysis and statistical technologies.Finally,a geo-detector model was adopted to identify the key driving factors that determine the spatial heterogeneity of ESV.The results showed that:1)From 1995 to 2020,the total ESV and its spatial distribution pattern differed as land use changed in the LMR basin,and the value of total ESV showed non-monotonic variation characteristics,which decreased from 1995 to 2015 and increased in 2020.There are significant differences and spatial heterogeneity in the three development scenarios in 2040,with the lowest ESV in the agricultural development scenario(ADS)and the highest ESV in the ecological protection scenario(EPS).2)There are significant spatial positive correlations and spatial agglomeration effects of ESV in different scenarios in 2040,and the scale and spatial pattern of ESV cold/hotspots in each scenario are considerably different.3)The spatial heterogeneity of ESV of the LMR is driven by both natural factors and human activities,in which the human footprint is the dominant driving factor of the ESV spatial pattern among the seven factors,and three factors including average annual temperature,elevation,and slope,are also the key driving factors of ESV spatial heterogeneity in the LMR.In addition,any combination of the two factors has stronger explanatory power for ESV spatial heterogeneity than a single factor.The two factors with the highest explanatory power were the interaction between the human footprint and average annual temperature.关键词
土地利用变化/生态服务价值/CV-Markov模型/地理探测器/澜沧江-湄公河Key words
land use change/ecological service value/CV-Markov model/Geo-detector/Lancang-Mekong River分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
赵志轩,魏芳菲,吴皓天,王怡宁,王澎喆..澜沧江-湄公河流域生态系统服务价值对土地利用变化的响应[J].生态环境学报,2025,34(5):688-698,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3201702) （2022YFC3201702）
