天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：54-62,9.DOI:10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20250209
京津冀地区能源消费碳排放量变化及其影响因素
Change of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its influencing factors
摘要
Abstract
To calculate the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and analyze its influ-encing factors,the carbon emissions of energy consumption were estimated using the calculation method of the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines based on the energy consumption data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2019.The change characteristics of carbon emissions were analyzed using MK trend method and inflection point method,and the differences of energy structure and contribution of carbon emission influencing factors in each region were analyzed using the Kaya model and LMDI algorithm.The results show that:① The growth rate of carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has slowed down significantly since 2000,and the growth rate of carbon emissions has been contro-lled below 3.72％since 2011.② The energy structure has been optimized as a whole,with the proportion of electricity and natural gas increasing from 8％and 1％to 13％and 10％respectively,and the proportion of coal and oil decreased from 67％and 24％to 57％and 20％respectively from 2000 to 2019.③ Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are in different stages of the"double carbon"target,Beijing's carbon emissions have reached the peak and show a downward trend,those of Tianjin are close to the"carbon peak"target,and Hebei's carbon emissions have not yet reached"peak",but the growth rate has slowed down significantly.④ Over-all,energy consumption intensity and energy structure have a restraining effect on carbon emissions,while economic develop-ment and population size have a promoting effect on carbon emissions.In the future,it is necessary to continue to optimize the ener-gy structure and industrial structure,and implement differentiated CO2 emission reduction plans in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.关键词
京津冀地区/碳排放/能源消费/能源结构/影响因素Key words
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/carbon emissions/energy consumption/energy structure/influence factor分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
李静,王坤,陈奕伶,李佳音,曹永强,崔铁军,陈睿山..京津冀地区能源消费碳排放量变化及其影响因素[J].天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,45(2):54-62,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA085) （20ZDA085）
科技基础资源调查专项(2019FY202501). （2019FY202501）
