中国电力2025，Vol.58Issue(5)：52-61,10.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410088
碳配额约束下省级能源供需预测方法研究
A Forecasting Method for Provincial-level Energy Supply and Demand under Carbon Quota Constraint
摘要
Abstract
Energy is the foundation of national economy and the main field for carbon reduction,and its future development of energy supply and demand has a significant impact on constructing the new energy systems and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets.Considering multiple factors such as economic and social development status,energy consumption characteristics of each province,an indicator system for carbon quota allocation is constructed,encompassing aggregate and relative metrics,and balancing equity with efficiency,and a provincial-level energy supply-demand forcasting method under carbon quota constraints is proposed to achieve comprehensive balance analysis and prediction of primary and secondary energy of different varieties and industries covering the entire process.Based on China's carbon peak target in 2030,an empirical analysis is carried out with Shandong Province as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,which provides a reference for different provinces in carbon emissions control and energy transformation.关键词
能源供需/碳配额/公平效率/综合预测Key words
energy supply and demand/carbon quotas/fairness and efficiency/synthetic forecasting引用本文复制引用
厉艳,赵昕,薛万磊,谭显东,刘知凡,刘之琳..碳配额约束下省级能源供需预测方法研究[J].中国电力,2025,58(5):52-61,10.基金项目
国网山东省电力公司科技项目(碳达峰、碳中和目标下山东能源转型发展路径及成效评价研究,520625210017). This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company(Study on the Energy Transformation Path and Effect Evaluation of Shandong Province under the Target of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization,No.520625210017). （碳达峰、碳中和目标下山东能源转型发展路径及成效评价研究,520625210017）
