中国电力2025，Vol.58Issue(5)：62-73,12.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202403055
考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究
Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the investment decision optimization issue under the condition of uncertain cost of multiple types of low-carbon technologies faced by power generation enterprises to actively achieve the goal of"dual carbon",this paper takes the medium-and long-term time-scale decision-making optimization of independent power generation enterprises as the research perspective.Considering the cost uncertainty of various technologies within the investment period,a two-stage robust model is constructed based on the expected output and installed capacity.In the first stage,the objective is to maximize the net profit of the enterprise's operations.In the second stage,the cost uncertainty of various technology investments and the expected output provided in the first stage are considered as constraints.A comprehensive consideration of the annual investment intensity of the enterprise and the total investment limit for the investment plan period is made to minimize the total investment cost.The second-stage model is transformed into an equivalent linearized model for subsequent solving of the problem in a robust equivalent form.The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is employed to solve the two-stage problem.The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing the evolution of the power generation company's power structure under different scenarios,which can provide valuable insights for power generation companies adopting low-carbon technologies.关键词
低碳技术/技术采纳/不确定性/两阶段决策/投资决策/C&CG算法Key words
low-carbon technology/technology adoption/uncertainty/two-stage decision/investment decision/C&CG algorithm引用本文复制引用
檀勤良,贺嘉明,吕函谕,丁毅宏..考虑成本不确定性的发电企业低碳技术采纳决策优化研究[J].中国电力,2025,58(5):62-73,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目("双碳"目标下发电企业低碳技术创新扩散及其产业链协同演化机制研究,72272050) （"双碳"目标下发电企业低碳技术创新扩散及其产业链协同演化机制研究,72272050）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(电-碳-绿证市场耦合下电力系统低碳转型与协同优化研究,72304097). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Research on the Mechanism of Low-Carbon Technology Innovation Diffusion and Industrial Chain Co-evolution of Power Generation Enterprises Under"30·60"Target,NO.72272050),National Natural Science Foundation of China for Young Scholars(Research on Low-Carbon Transformation and Collaborative Optimization of Power System Under the Coupling of Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Market,NO.72304097). （电-碳-绿证市场耦合下电力系统低碳转型与协同优化研究,72304097）
