人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(6)：14-24,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.06.003
基于QRNN的黄河流域九省(区)碳达峰路径分析
Analysis of Carbon Peaking Pathways in Nine Provinces and Regions of the Yellow River Basin Based on QRNN
摘要
Abstract
Most of the provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River Basin face challenges such as fragile eco-environment,under-developed economies and imbalanced industrial structures,making carbon peaking particularly difficult.In order to explore effective and fea-sible pathways for carbon peaking and provide references for formulating carbon emission policies in the Yellow River Basin,this study,based on the 14th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development and the long-term goals for 2035 of the nine provinces(autonomous regions),established the three development scenarios of a low-carbon development mode prioritizing green growth and balancing economic progress with ecological protection,a baseline development mode continuing current economic trends,and a high-growth development mode focusing on rapid economic expansion without energy-saving or emission-reduction targets.Using panel data from 2000-2021 on per capita GDP,energy intensity,urbanization rate,population size and industrial structure,a Quantile Regression Neural Network(QRNN)model was applied for empirical analysis and the Gaussian kernel function was adopted for kernel density estimation and the probability prediction of carbon emissions from 2022 to 2035.The results show that a)under all three scenarios,Henan,Inner Mongolia and Qinghai have achieved early carbon peaking(in 2011,2020 and 2013 respectively),while the other six provinces(autonomous regions)are unlikely to achieve carbon peaking on schedule(among which Shanxi is expected to reach carbon peaking by 2035).b)Qinghai and Shandong are suitable for the benchmark development mode,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Sichuan and Shaanxi are suitable for the low-carbon development mode and Henan,Gansu and Ningxia are suitable for the high-growth development mode.It is suggested to formulate differentiated development poli-cies,establish a regional carbon trading market and a linkage mechanism for pollution control in the Yellow River Basin,and promote overall carbon reduction and emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin.关键词
碳达峰/发展模式/分位数回归神经网络/核密度估计/概率预测/黄河流域Key words
carbon peaking/development model/QRNN/kernel density estimation/probabilistic forecasting/Yellow River Basin分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
张小波,吴锦煌..基于QRNN的黄河流域九省(区)碳达峰路径分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(6):14-24,11.基金项目
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022CJJ163) （2022CJJ163）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(23YJCZH305) （23YJCZH305）
国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BTJ017) （24BTJ017）
