心理学报2025，Vol.57Issue(6)：1108-1118,11.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1041.2025.1108
因果·影响·相关与预测辨析
Distinguishing between causality,influence,correlation,and prediction
摘要
Abstract
Wen et al.(2024)discussed the following three issues:(1)explaining why it is inappropriate to understand influence relationship between variables as causal or correlation relationship,and then providing the definitions for two terms,influence relationship and influence factor;(2)summarizing several ways to find evidence for justifying the directionality when modeling the influence relationship.(3)categorizing multiple influence factors working together. Ge(2025)questioned Wen et al.'s article as follows:(1)the concept of"influence relationship"is not clearly defined;(2)influence relationship and causal relationship are indistinguishable;(3)one cannot create a new goal just because the means cannot provide causal evidence for the goal of causality;(4)the so-called influence relationship should be called"prediction".In response to these concerns,the present article offers clarifications and justifications. First,the influence relationship has been rigorously defined by using a"Genus and Differentia"approach in Wen et al.'s paper.The influence relationship can be determined by using logical reasoning and statistical correlation testing.We also explain"correlation",the genus concept of the influence relationship. Furthermore,any causal relationship is the influence relationship,and the two are equivalent in studies through randomized controlled experiments,whereas in other contexts influence relationship may not necessarily be causal relationship.We provided easily understandable cases where the influence relationship was established but the causal relationship was not.It also presented and explained the status and role of proxy effects in those cases. Beyond experimentation,establishing influence relationships is a suitable goal for investigation and research,which is better than the goal of establishing correlation.In statistics,any"correlation"can be used for"prediction",and the direction of prediction can differ from the actual direction of the variable relationship.Prediction is essentially statistical inference based on the relationships between variables,but it is not the relationships themselves.Causality,influence,and correlation are all relationships between variables,whereas prediction concerns the application of variable relationships.Therefore,prediction is not an appropriate substitute for influence relationship.关键词
影响关系/相关关系/因果关系/影响因素/预测Key words
influence relationship/correlation relationship/causal relationship/influence factor/prediction分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
温忠麟,马鹏,孟进,王一帆..因果·影响·相关与预测辨析[J].心理学报,2025,57(6):1108-1118,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32171091)和广东省脑认知与人的素质发展基础学科研究中心(2024B0303390003)资助. （32171091）
