中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(3)：1-12,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240323
基于CMIP6情景的中国气候损失评估
Assessment of climate damage in China based on CMIP6 SSP scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Assessing climate loss and damage helps quantify the potential costs and benefits of climate policies under the carbon neu-trality goal.Currently,there are few quantitative studies on climate loss and damage in China.Different studies vary significantly in terms of assessment models and methods,sectoral impact mechanisms,data consistency,etc.Thus,the results are not comparable.This study developed an integrated assessment framework for climate loss and damage based on a simplified climate model and employed the latest CMIP6 data.Using a bottom-up approach,the climate damage functions in eight sectors of China were revised to quantify climate losses in both market and non-market sectors under three SSPs scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5),leading to the calibration of an aggregate climate damage function for China.Compared to other studies that applied globally set damage functions to China or direct-ly set an aggregate damage function,the calibrated sectoral and aggregate climate damage functions in this study were more consistent with China's actual situation.The quantitative assessment results indicated that China's total climate loss increased non-linearly with temperature rise.Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,which was close to the emission pathway for achieving the nationally determined contri-bution target,China's temperature rise would exceed 2℃after 2040,resulting in a potential loss of more than 5%of GDP each year.The losses in non-market sectors far exceeded those in market sectors,with human health losses and losses from sea level rise being the primary factors contributing to the rapid increase in China's climate losses in the future,followed by meteorological disasters,agricul-ture,water resources,forestry,ecosystems,and energy consumption.Achieving the temperature control target of the Paris Agreement could avoid huge climate losses.For instance,achieving the global 1.5℃and 2℃temperature control targets by the end of this century would result in China's climate losses reaching 3.9%and 5.8%of the GDP by 2100,respectively,avoiding 22.95%and 21.02%of addi-tional climate losses compared to the baseline SSP5-8.5 scenario.Comparing the impacts of climate variables and socioeconomic factors under CMIP5 and CMIP6 on China's climate losses,the absolute climate loss increased by 1%～1.4%under CMIP6.关键词
气候变化/综合评估模型/气候损失/气候损失函数Key words
climate change/integrated assessment model/climate loss/climate damage function分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
刘昌义,史向珍,杨历,刘杰,刘文锴,史学丽..基于CMIP6情景的中国气候损失评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(3):1-12,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于综合评估模型开展气候损失评估及碳中和路径优化与福利经济分析"(批准号:42175171) （批准号:42175171）
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"高质量脱贫背景下气候灾害致贫返贫机理与农户生计韧性提升对策研究"(批准号:20XJC790002) （批准号:20XJC790002）
国家气候中心创新团队"综合评估模型搭建和应用"资助 （）
中国气象局气候变化专项(批准号:QBZ202311). （批准号:QBZ202311）
