中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(3)：69-81,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20241008
碳交易市场对农业绿色低碳转型的影响
Impact of the carbon trading market on China's agricultural green and low-carbon transformation
摘要
Abstract
An in-depth analysis of the impact of the carbon trading market on China's agricultural green and low-carbon transforma-tion is of great significance for exploring the focus of this transformation,establishing its market-based long-term mechanisms,and ulti-mately building an agricultural power with Chinese characteristics.Based on China's provincial data from 2007 to 2021,this study in-corporated agricultural pollution reduction,carbon reduction,and carbon sink enhancement into a unified governance framework.The super-efficiency SBM model was employed to construct an agricultural green and low-carbon development index,which was used to ana-lyze the agricultural transformation process.The PSM-DID model and fuzzy DID method were utilized to estimate and quantify the im-pact of the carbon trading market on China's agricultural green and low-carbon transformation.The marginal effects of the difference-in-differences(DID)method were adopted to analyze and refine the regional heterogeneity of the market effects caused by differences in ag-ricultural industrial structure and agricultural carbon productivity.A multi-period PSM-DID model was established to investigate the different effects of transaction size,market activity,and penalties for contract breaches on agricultural transformation.Additionally,a spatial DID model was used to analyze the spatial spillover effects of the carbon trading market on agricultural green and low-carbon transformation.The underlying reasons were explored from two dimensions:governance inertia and peer effects.The results were as fol-lows:① China's green and low-carbon agricultural development showed a slow downward trend,with obvious regional disparities and a certain spatial autocorrelation.② The carbon trading market was more conducive to agricultural green and low-carbon development in pilot regions,regions with a low proportion of agriculture and animal husbandry,and regions with high carbon resource utilization effi-ciency.③ The expansion of the transaction scale,the enhancement of market liquidity,and the increase in penalties for contract breaches made the impetus for agricultural transformation more evident.④ The spatial spillover effect of the carbon trading market on agricultural green and low-carbon transformation was primarily attributed to the existence of governance inertia and the competitive imi-tation effect.Finally,it is proposed to develop a system of agricultural emission reduction methods,establish a risk-sharing mechanism,and systematically promote the integration of agriculture into the carbon trading market.Regionally differentiated development should be promoted to improve the overall impact of the carbon trading market on agricultural transformation.The carbon trading market mech-anism should be further enhanced,with stricter penalties for carbon trading defaults.Efforts should be made to foster healthy regional competition and strengthen regional agricultural economic ties to stimulate the vitality of low-carbon agricultural production.关键词
农业/绿色低碳转型/碳交易市场/区域异质性/空间双重差分/边际效应Key words
agriculture/green and low-carbon transformation/carbon trading market/regional heterogeneity/spatial difference-in-dif-ferences model/marginal effect分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
何艳秋,陶思洁,唐宏,程亚,蓝红星..碳交易市场对农业绿色低碳转型的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(3):69-81,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"碳排放交易机制的减污降碳协同效应研究"(批准号:23BTJ033). （批准号:23BTJ033）
