安徽农业科学2025，Vol.53Issue(10)：217-220,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2025.10.043
基于气象因子的小麦赤霉病中短期预测模型研究
Study on Medium and Short Term Prediction Models of Fusarium graminearum Based on Meteorological Factors
许光文 1韦刚2
作者信息
- 1. 合肥市农业经济技术服务管理总站,安徽 合肥 230091
- 2. 庐江县农业技术推广中心,安徽庐江 231500
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Fusarium graminearum is one of the common and important diseases in global wheat production,closely related to meteorological conditions.To explore the relationship between the occurrence degree of Fusarium graminearum and meteorological conditions in Hefei City,the correlation analysis was conducted between the occurrence level of Fusarium graminearum and meteorological factors in Lujiang County from 2005 to 2024.The results showed that the disease was significantly positively correlated with rainfall,rainy days and average relative hu-midity in early March,extremely significantly negatively correlated with average temperature in early March,and extremely significantly posi-tively correlated with rainfall,rainy days and average relative humidity in mid April.Using stepwise regression method,select meteorological factors with significant correlation and construct a medium and short term prediction model for Fusarium graminearum.Historical backtesting showed that the medium and short term forecasting models had high fitting accuracy and were suitable for predicting Fusarium graminearum in Hefei City.关键词
小麦赤霉病/发生级别/气象因子/中短期预测模型Key words
Fusarium graminearum/Level of occurrence/Meteorological factor/Medium and short term prediction model分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
许光文,韦刚..基于气象因子的小麦赤霉病中短期预测模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2025,53(10):217-220,4.
