北京林业大学学报2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：123-130,8.DOI:10.12171/j.1000-1522.20230183
基于凋落物分解速率的森林凋落叶载量动态预测
Dynamic prediction of forest leaf litter load based on litter decomposition rate
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Forest fallen leaves play a crucial role in the occurrence and development of forest fires as ignition and flammable materials.This article takes the Betula platyphylla forest in Daxing'an Mountains of northeastern China as an example to construct a mathematical model from the perspective of forest leaf litter generation and decomposition,predict the future dynamics of forest leaf litter load,and provide a theoretical basis for forest fire prevention scientific research.[Method]The forest floor litter was regarded as accumulation of residual amounts from decomposition of litter over years.Using the Olson single-exponential decomposition equation,a set of litter decomposition equations was constructed.Mathematical methods such as series summation,substitution,and stepwise search were applied to simplify the equations,and the litter decomposition rate coefficient and decomposition turnover period were solved.Subsequently,the litter decomposition rate coefficient and decomposition turnover period were used to derive a litter load prediction model.Model variable data were obtained through the establishment of survey sample site to verify the operability and accuracy of prediction model.[Result]A forest litter load prediction model based on litter decomposition rate was established,which predicted the litter load in survey sample plots for the next two years.The relative error between the predicted and measured litter loads ranged from 0.05 to 0.26,with an average error of 0.14.Overall,the model's predicted values were relatively consistent with the measured values.[Conclusion]Model predictions reveal that the litter load in the Daxing'an Mountains forest region follows periodic growth-decay cycles over time.Stands with higher decomposition rates exhibit shorter cycles and maintain more stable litter loads,whereas those with slower decomposition rates show prolonged cycles with persistent load fluctuations.The developed model effectively predicts litter load dynamics,providing critical support for quantifying forest fuel accumulation and assessing regional fire risk levels.关键词
凋落物分解/森林防火/森林可燃物/可燃物载量/载量模型Key words
litter decomposition/prevention of forest fires/forest fuel/fuel load/load model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
蔡志勇,孙龙,胡海清,赵南,孙家宝..基于凋落物分解速率的森林凋落叶载量动态预测[J].北京林业大学学报,2025,47(5):123-130,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32071777),黑龙江省省属科研院所科研业务费项目(LKSB2025-2). （32071777）
