创新科技2025，Vol.25Issue(5)：54-65,12.DOI:10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2025.5.5
技术创新促进经济增长的异质性研究
Research on the Heterogeneity of Technological Innovation in Pro-moting Economic Growth
摘要
Abstract
In Guangdong Province,a pronounced"center-periphery"differentiation exists be-tween technological innovation and economic development,giving rise to a"multi-speed"growth dilemma across the region.Panel data from 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong from 2012 to 2021 were employed.Three dimensions—innovation inputs,innovation outputs,and in-novation environment—were integrated to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for technological innovation capability.The global entropy method was then applied to quantify each city's innovation capability.Next,the natural breaks classification method in ArcGIS was used to examine the spatial-temporal distribution of innovation capability and economic develop-ment levels,thereby revealing their evolution and regional disparities.Finally,a dynamic spatial Durbin model was employed to assess the spatial effects of innovation on economic growth in both the short and long term,with particular attention to inter-regional heterogeneity.The analy-sis yields four main findings:①Innovation capability and economic development levels display a clear agglomeration pattern centered on the Pearl River Delta,indicating strong spatial cluster-ing and pronounced imbalance.②A significant positive spatial correlation and spatial heteroge-neity exist between innovation capability and economic development across Guangdong's cities.③In the Pearl River Delta,innovation exerts a prominent short-term positive effect,primarily by driving local and neighboring economic growth via technology spillovers.④In Northern and Eastern Guangdong,both short-term and long-term indirect effects of innovation are insignifi-cant.Northern Guangdong even exhibits a short-term negative direct effect and an insignificant long-term impact,suggesting that innovation has not effectively promoted growth there.In con-trast,in Eastern Guangdong,technological innovation contributes positively to local economic growth in both the short and long term.Although the direct impact of technological innovation in Western Guangdong is not significant,the region effectively leverages external technological progress to promote short-term economic growth through interactions with more developed areas and infrastructure support.Based on these empirical findings,the study further incorporates Ros-tow's stages of economic growth theory to interpret and classify the development stages of differ-ent regions in Guangdong.The Pearl River Delta is judged to have transitioned from the"take-off"to the"maturity"stage.Northern Guangdong remains in the"preconditions for take-off"stage.Eastern and Western Guangdong are in the crucial phase of transitioning from the"precon-ditions for take-off"to the"take-off"stage.关键词
珠三角/技术创新/经济增长/区域差异/异质性Key words
Pearl River Delta/technological innovation/economic growth/regional differ-ences/heterogeneity分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
王佳怡,吕拉昌..技术创新促进经济增长的异质性研究[J].创新科技,2025,25(5):54-65,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"中国三大城市群创新机制与空间组织模式的比较研究"(41971201). （41971201）
