当代经济科学2025，Vol.47Issue(3)：130-146,17.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.202503009
中国人口高质量发展水平测度、区域差异及动态演进
Measurement,Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of High-Quality Population Development in China
摘要
Abstract
High-quality population development is crucial to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and serves as an important pillar for Chinese-style modernization.This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality population development from four dimensions:population quality,total population,regional population structure,and coordination between population and resources/environment.Using a combined subjective-objective weighting method,we measure China's high-quality population development level,examine its regional differences,and employ the Gini coefficient to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics of regional disparities in high-quality population development. The research findings indicate that:From 2010 to 2021,China's high-quality population development level exhibits a fluctuating upward trend,with a slight decline in 2021 and relatively low volatility;Significant regional disparities exist in high-quality population development levels,with Guangdong,Beijing,and Zhejiang ranking as the top three provinces;The sub-indexes for population quality and regional population structure show upward trends,while the total population index displays an accelerating downward trend,and the population-resource-environment coordination index demonstrates a fluctuating upward trend;The contribution rate to high-quality population development level from highest to lowest is:population-resource-environment coordination,regional population structure,total population,and population quality—though from 2020 onwards,the contribution of population quality exceeds that of total population;Regional contributions of high-quality population development sub-indices vary considerably;The four major regions(Eastern,Central,Northeastern,and Western)show relatively consistent trends in high-quality population development levels,all displaying fluctuating upward trends with low volatility—with the Eastern region maintaining the highest level,while Central,Northeastern,and Western regions show intertwining patterns;The four economic belts all demonstrate fluctuating upward trends in high-quality population development levels with a slight decline in 2021,low volatility,and small differences—ranking from highest to lowest:21st Century Maritime Silk Road,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Economic Belt,and Silk Road Economic Belt;The overall regional disparity in China's population development levels shows a fluctuating upward trend with very small amplitude is very small;Among the four major regions,the Eastern region has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed by the Western,Northeastern,and Central regions in descending order;Among the four economic belts,the Yangtze River Economic Belt has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Silk Road Economic Belt,and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt in descending order;Between the four major regions,the Eastern-Western regional pair has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed in descending order by:Northeastern-Western,Central-Western,Eastern-Central,Eastern-Northeastern,and Central-Northeastern pairs;Between the four economic belts,the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road-Silk Road Economic Belt pair has the highest mean Gini coefficient,followed in descending order by:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Silk Road Economic Belt,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Maritime Silk Road,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Silk Road Economic Belt,Yangtze River Economic Belt-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Maritime Silk Road pairs;Spatial differences in high-quality population development levels primarily stem from inter-regional disparities,with intra-regional differences as a secondary factor.关键词
人口高质量发展/区域差异/人口素质/人口总量/人口区域结构/人口与资源环境协调/基尼系数Key words
high-quality population development level/regional differences/population quality/total population/population regional structure/cooordination between population,resources,and enviorment/Gini index引用本文复制引用
袁晓玲,韩宝晶,张江洋,张卫航..中国人口高质量发展水平测度、区域差异及动态演进[J].当代经济科学,2025,47(3):130-146,17.基金项目
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"促进城市高质量建设发展的长效机制研究"(20JZD012). （20JZD012）
