电力建设2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：49-59,11.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2025.06.005
基于系统动力学预测的电动汽车充电站规划方法
Electric Vehicle Charging Station Planning Method Based on System Dynamics Prediction
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]With the increasing number of electric vehicles(EVs),rational planning of charging stations(CSs)has become a key challenge in meeting charging demand.A multistage planning method for EVCSs considering expansion is proposed to adapt to dynamic changes in the ownership of EVs and improve the rationality and economic efficiency of CS planning.[Methods]First,based on the system dynamics(SD)method,dynamic prediction of EV ownership is conducted.Then,to maximize the investment return of CSs and minimize the queuing time of EV users,a multi-stage planning model for EVCSs considering expansion is constructed.Finally,the model is solved using the immune genetic algorithm.[Results]Simulation results based on case studies demonstrate that the queuing time is reduced significantly when staged planning is used compared with the one-time planning approach.In addition,by incorporating the increase in EV ownership predicted through SD prediction as opposed to relying on a fixed ownership model,the proposed planning method leads to higher costs and total income.Moreover,planning results that consider expansion strategies have more advantages in terms of total revenue than those that do not.[Conclusions]The proposed EV ownership prediction model is more accurate and suitable for meeting future planning needs,and can effectively improve the accuracy of the planning results.The proposed planning model,which incorporates both staged and expansion strategies,reduces the initial investment cost and significantly improves the economic viability of the planning results.It also increases the flexibility and sustainability of CS planning.关键词
系统动力学(SD)/充电站多阶段规划/电动汽车(EV)/保有量预测/扩建方法Key words
system dynamic(SD)/multi-stage planning of charging station/electric vehicle(EV)/ownership forecasting/expansion method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨楠,梁鹏程,黄悦华,张磊,葛志超,李黄强,辛培哲,申冉..基于系统动力学预测的电动汽车充电站规划方法[J].电力建设,2025,46(6):49-59,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"区域能源互联网的分布式协同控制与智能决策"(62233006) This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62233006). （62233006）
