河北工业科技2025，Vol.42Issue(3)：285-294,10.DOI:10.7535/hbgykj.2025yx03010
基于风功率预测的电网风电接纳能力评估方法
Evaluation method of wind power acceptance capacity of power grid based on wind power prediction
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the influence of the accuracy of wind power prediction on the determination of the acceptance interval and improve the decision-making ability of grid dispatching,a wind power prediction model based on Attention-LSTM was proposed by combining the long short-term memory(LSTM)network and attention mechanism,and the evaluation method of wind power acceptance capacity of the grid was further optimized based on the prediction model.Firstly,the influencing factors of wind power were used to construct a wind power prediction model based on Attention-LSTM.Secondly,an evaluation model of wind power acceptance capacity was established.Finally,Matlab was used to carry out simulation experiments to compare and analyze the prediction data of the Attention-LSTM model and the traditional model,and to determine and evaluate the wind power acceptance capacity of the grid based on the prediction data.The results show that the average absolute error of the prediction data of the Attention-LSTM model is 4.602 MW,which is significantly better than that of the traditional prediction model,and the wind power prediction value has a high correlation with the wind power acceptance interval prediction,and the accuracy of the upper limit of the wind power acceptance interval can be improved by improving the accuracy of the wind power prediction accuracy.Compared with the traditional prediction model,the wind power prediction model based on Attention-LSTM has higher accuracy and can ensure stable operation of the power system in actual production.关键词
发电工程/风功率预测/风电接纳能力/注意力机制/弃风率Key words
power generation engineering/wind power prediction/wind power acceptance capacity/attention mechanism/wind curtailment rate分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
韩秀峰,佟金锴,陈卫东,车笛,赵翔宇,王亮..基于风功率预测的电网风电接纳能力评估方法[J].河北工业科技,2025,42(3):285-294,10.基金项目
辽宁省科技厅创新能力提升联合基金(2022-NLTS-16-05) （2022-NLTS-16-05）
辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目(LJKMZ20221707) （LJKMZ20221707）
