空间科学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：364-382,19.DOI:10.11728/cjss2025.02.2024-0201
风云三号D星微波湿度计在台风"摩羯"预报中的效果解析
Analysis of the Effect of the Fengyun-3D Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS-II)Data Assimilation on Typhoon"YAGI"Forecast
摘要
Abstract
The Fengyun-3D satellite(FY-3D)Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS-II)successfully monitored the Typhoon"YAGI"(2411).In this paper,a three-dimensional variational assimilation framework of FY-3D MWHS-II data in clear sky is constructed in WRFDA.By setting up a single-band and dual-band joint assimilation and prediction experiment scheme of 118 GHz and 183 GHz,the micro-wave data assimilation and the forecast effect on the intensity,path and precipitation of Typhoon"YA-GI"are systematically evaluated.The experiment shows that the assimilation of FY-3D MWHS-II data effectively improves the quality of the analysis field,and also has a positive impact on the forecast of ty-phoon intensity,track and precipitation.For the typhoon forecast,the assimilation of 118 GHz and 183 GHz channels improved the typhoon path forecast by 17.18%and 13.39%respectively,and the assimila-tion of 183 GHz in the ocean area made the path forecast improve by 14.59%.For the precipitation fore-cast,the assimilation of MWHS-II data significantly improves the hit rate of medium and small rainfall levels(<25 mm)in the initial 24 hours,among which the 118GHz channel has a unique advantage in forecasting heavy rainfall(>50 mm);The improvement effect of 183 GHz channel gradually appeared after 24 hours,while the dual-band joint scheme showed comprehensive advantages,and the FSS score of precipitation in each magnitude was significantly improved compared with the control experiment.The differential improvement effect of FY-3D MWHS-II's 118 GHz and 183 GHz frequency bands on differ-ent forecast elements highlights the unique application value and potential of FY-3 MWHS-II data in re-gional typhoon numerical forecast.关键词
微波湿度计/风云三号D星/卫星微波资料同化/数值天气预报/台风"摩羯"Key words
Microwave humidity sounder/Fengyun-3D satellite/Satellite microwave data assimilation/Numerical weather prediction/Typhoon"YAGI"分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
冯雨萱,何杰颖,马刚..风云三号D星微波湿度计在台风"摩羯"预报中的效果解析[J].空间科学学报,2025,45(2):364-382,19.基金项目
中国科学院青年交叉团队项目资助(JCTD-2021-10) （JCTD-2021-10）
