皮肤性病诊疗学杂志2025，Vol.32Issue(5)：345-350,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8468.2025.05.006
2004-2023年广州市梅毒流行趋势分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型
Epidemiological trend analysis of syphilis in Guangzhou from 2004 to 2023 using Joinpoint regression model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To examine the epidemiological trends and characteristics of syphilis in Guangzhou city and provide evidence for the development of effective prevention and control strate-gies.Methods Syphilis case data from Guangzhou,from 2004 to 2023,were collected through the infectious disease surveillance module of the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System(CDCIS).A Joinpoint regression model was applied for time trend analysis,calculating the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC).Results From 2004 to 2023,the overall reported incidence of syphilis in Guangzhou increased from 19.25/100 000 to 63.22/100 000(AAPC=6.23％,P＜0.001),while the reported incidence of early-stage syphilis declined from 12.46/100 000 to 6.73/100 000(AAPC=-2.07％,P=0.116).The incidence of third-stage syphilis rose from 0.13/100 000 to 0.21/100 000(AAPC=1.77％,P=0.343),whereas fetal syphilis decreased sharply from 0.97/100 000 to 0.02/100 000(AAPC=-23.03％,P＜0.001).Additionally,the incidence of occult syphilis increased sig-nificantly from 5.70/100 000 to 56.26/100 000(AAPC=12.58％,P＜0.001).For males,the incidence rose from 23.79/100 000 to 67.74/100 000(AAPC=5.03％,P＜0.001),while in females it increased from 21.28/100 000 to 58.22/100 000(AAPC=5.06％,P＜0.001).The highest annual increase was observed in the 10-19 age group(AAPC=17.23％,P＜0.001).Furthermore,the AAPC for reported syphilis incidence in central and peripheral urban areas were 6.33％(Z=4.24,P＜0.001)and 7.03％(Z=7.32,P＜0.001),respectively.Conclusions Overall the incidence of syphilis in Guangzhou has increased from 2004 to 2023,but has stabi-lized in recent years.Rates remain higher than the national average.While primary syphilis and congenital syphilis have declined,latent syphilis continues to increase.Measures should include raising public awareness,addressing the trend of younger infections,and expanding screening among key populations to ensure early detection,standardized treatment,and reporting,thereby controlling the spread of syphilis.关键词
梅毒/流行趋势/Joinpoint回归模型Key words
syphilis/epidemic trend/Joinpoint regression model引用本文复制引用
彭嘉俊,何婉苹,杨韵青,钟雪莲,罗权,叶兴东..2004-2023年广州市梅毒流行趋势分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型[J].皮肤性病诊疗学杂志,2025,32(5):345-350,6.基金项目
广州市卫生健康委员会西医类一般引导项目(20241A011069),广州市科技计划项目任务书2025年度市校(院)企联合资助项目(2025A03J3774) （20241A011069）
