棉花学报2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：79-93,15.DOI:10.11963/cs20240069
CCER机制下中国棉花碳信用潜力及其经济价值
The carbon credit potential and economic value of China cotton based on CCER mechanism
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the potential of cotton carbon credits under the CCER(Chinese Certified Emission Reduction)mechanism,quantitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas reduction potential of cotton production that can participate in the CCER mechanism,predict the economic value it can generate,and explore the possibility of additionality certification for cotton carbon credits based on the CCER mechanism.[Methods]First,a counterfactual analysis framework was constructed through scenario division.Based on the existing mature life cycle assessment boundaries of cotton,components meeting the requirements of the CCER mechanism were identified.The development potential,economic value,and future trends of cotton carbon credit in China's three main cotton regions were estimated and predicted.Furthermore,the additionality of cotton carbon credit was demonstrated using the general proof methods required by the CCER mechanism.[Results]The cotton carbon credit in China's three main cotton regions exhibits significant development potential and economic value.Under the best-line scenario,the annual average carbon credit potential and economic value from 2014 to 2023 were 7.932 4 million tons of CO2 equivalence and 729 million CNY,respectively,with an upward trend.Under the better-line scenario,the respective figures were 2.412 3 million tons of CO2 equivalence and 222 million CNY.The Northwest Inland Cotton Region is the primary area for cotton carbon credit development,accounting for over 90％and continuing to increase.Promoting and adopting low-carbon agricultural technologies can help cotton carbon credits pass the additionality certification based on the CCER mechanism.The better-line scenario's technological choices provide a more pragmatic approach.[Conclusion]The three main cotton-growing regions in China,especially the Northwest Inland Cotton Region,have great potential for carbon credit development.Considering the practical context of"increased production equating to increased income",efforts should focus on leveraging the scale advantages of the Northwest Inland Cotton Region and exploring collaborative cooperation models between the upstream and downstream ends of the industry chain to promote the practical development of cotton carbon credit.关键词
棉花/碳信用/氧化亚氮/额外性/经济价值Key words
cotton/carbon credit/N2O/additionality/economic value引用本文复制引用
蔡路,张正贵,兰雅琦,贾雨鑫,王占彪,高雷..CCER机制下中国棉花碳信用潜力及其经济价值[J].棉花学报,2025,37(2):79-93,15.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区"天山计划"青年科技拔尖人才项目(2023TSYCCX0020) （2023TSYCCX0020）
新疆维吾尔自治区昌吉回族自治州"庭州英才"青年科技拔尖人才项目(2023CT09) （2023CT09）
丝绸之路经济带创新驱动发展试验区、乌昌石国家自主创新示范区科技发展计划项目(2023LQJ03) （2023LQJ03）
