南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.49Issue(3)：119-128,10.DOI:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001
耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测
Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling In VEST and FLUS models
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Forecasting future land use changes under different scenarios in Wuxi City and studying the spatial and temporal variations in water yield services and their driving factors are crucial for local ecological and socio-economic sustainability.[Method]The FLUS and In VEST models were used to predict future land use changes based on historical trends.The spatial and temporal variations in water yield services in Wuxi City from 1990 to 2030 were analyzed,and scenario analysis was employed to identify the main factors influencing water yield.[Result]The primary historical land use change in Wuxi had been the conversion of cultivated land to developed land.During the study period,the area of cultivated land decreased by 32.69％,while developed land increased by 217.25％.The historical annual average water yield in Wuxi was 2.552 × 109 m3,with a depth of 612.34 mm.Water yield varied with rainfall and evapotranspiration,initially decreasing and then increasing.Spatially,the high-value areas of water production were concentrated in the southwestern forest and northeastern grassland areas,while the low value areas were concentrated in the central water area.During the four time periods of 1990 to 2000,1990 to 2010,1990 to 2020,and 2020 to 2030,the changes in water yield were influenced by land use transfer and changes in precipitation.These two factors contributed to the water yield of the four time periods by-10.00％ and 110.00％,12.50％ and 87.50％,1.00％ and 99.00％,5.46％ and 94.54％,respectively.Precipitation is the main factor affecting changes in water yield.[Conclusion]Scenario analysis results indicate that changes in rainfall have a more significant impact on water yield than changes in land use.Rainfall is the primary driver of variations in water yield,providing a scientific basis for water allocation in the study area.关键词
InVEST模型/FLUS模型/产水量/驱动因子/土地利用/无锡市Key words
In VEST model/FLUS model/water yield/driving factors/land use/Wuxi City分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
包逸涛,吴朝明,朱骊,杨锐,戈禹,刘自强..耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,49(3):119-128,10.基金项目
西北土地退化与生态恢复重点实验室(宁夏大学)开放基金项目(LDER2022Q02) （宁夏大学）
国家自然科学基金项目(42377068) （42377068）
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20231290) （BK20231290）
江苏省高校"青蓝工程"水土保持实践教学团队. （）
