中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(6)：9-20,12.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240171
1978-2020年中国农业气象灾害时空格局解析
Spatiotemporal Variations of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in China During 1978-2020
摘要
Abstract
Global warming leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events,which in turn trigger various meteorological disasters.The study selected five main agri-cultural meteorological disasters:drought,floods,wind and hail,low-temperature freezing damage,and typhoons.Based on meteorological disaster data from 1978 to 2020,Mann-Kendall non parametric test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and bootstrap estimation were used to systematically analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of major agricultural meteorological disasters in China.The results show that:(1)There is no significant change in the overall affected area of agricultural meteorological disas-ters in China,but the phased characteristics are significant.Specifically,from 1978 to 2000,the area significantly increased at a rate of 576 200 hm2/a(p＜0.05),followed by a significant decrease at a rate of 2.401 6 million hm2/a(p＜0.05).Among different disasters,drought and flood have the largest proportion of affected areas and have the most significant impact on agriculture in China.(2)Against the backdrop of intensified global warming,the disaster rates of various disasters in China exhibit differ-ent mutation characteristics.The mutation points of drought and flood occurred around 2013,the muta-tion time of wind and hail occurred in 2005,and the low-temperature freezing damage did not ease until after 2005.(3)The agricultural meteorological disasters in China exhibit a clear multi time scale pat-tern,with floods and hail experiencing the strongest oscillations on a 28 years time scale,being the first main cycle;The first main cycle of drought and low-temperature freezing damage is 15 years.(4)From a spatial perspective,the Northeast,North China,and Northwest of China are mainly affected by drought and hail;The Southwest and Central China regions,on the other hand,are areas where drought and flood coexist,making them key areas of concern for disaster prevention and reduction in China;Floods and typhoons have the greatest impact on East and South China.(5)The overall intensity of va-rious disasters in our country is relatively high,showing a characteristic of multi period and multi re-gional clustering distribution.Among them,the period from 1990 to 2003 was a period of high disaster incidence and intensity,with an average intensity index of around 0.59.The research results are of great significance for deepening the understanding of the long-term occurrence and development patterns of multiple types of meteorological disasters in China,and for formulating disaster prevention and reduc-tion strategies.关键词
气象灾害/变化趋势/时空格局/旱灾/水灾Key words
meteorological disasters/changing trends/spatiotemporal characteristics/drought/flood分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邢嘉程,王依诺,关颖慧,姜雪菲,樊怡,王子骏,项嘉仪..1978-2020年中国农业气象灾害时空格局解析[J].中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(6):9-20,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41601279) （41601279）
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410022027)资助 Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601279) （202410022027）
the National College Student Innovation and Entrepre-neurship Training Program of China Project(202410022027) （202410022027）
