气象2025，Vol.51Issue(5)：581-594,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.010202
2020年超长梅雨期间新安江流域多模式降水预报评估
Evaluation of Multi-Model Forecast of Precipitation in Xin'anjiang Basin During the Ultra-Long Meiyu Season in 2020
摘要
Abstract
The refined precipitation forecasts from numerical prediction models are of a crucial support to flood control efforts within river basins.The continuous heavy rainfall during the Meiyu season in 2020 led to the heaviest flood event since the construction of the Xin'anjiang Reservoir and it was the first time that all the sluices were fully opened.Based on precipitation observation data from various stations,this paper examines the forecast performance of four global models and four regional models regarding both overall precipitation patterns and areal rainfall within Xin'anjiang Basin.Additionally,it focuses on evaluating the predictive capabilities of these models regarding extreme and cumulative precipitation effects in the basin to understand whether they can meet the demand of reservoir flood discharge forecasting service.Further-more,an analysis is conducted to assess how terrain height influences models' precipitation forecasts.The results show that the global models consistently underestimate the precipitation and have weaker prediction ability for extreme precipitation than the regional models.The regional models mostly overestimate the precipitation but have relatively large variations among the predictions.The regional multi-model ensemble average demonstrates a better forecast performance than single-model results.The regional models per-form well in forecasting rainfall of rainstorm to heavy rainstorm,but have some discrepancies in predicting the locations and timing of heavy rainstorm.Compare to the model evaluation of single-day precipitation forecast,it is more instructive to comprehensively consider the cumulative effects and extremity of precipi-tation prediction.Terrain height significantly influences the prediction of rainstorm events and above.As the terrain height increases,the advantage of regional models becomes evident while the predictive ability of global models for rainstorm events decreases.Especially for ZJWARMS and ZJWARRS,the TS scores increase from below 0.10 to approximately 0.15 or so.Additionally,moderate or lighter intensity rains are not affected by terrain so obviously.关键词
新安江流域/梅雨期降水/多模式/地形高度/检验评估Key words
Xin'anjiang Basin/precipitation in Meiyu season/multi-model/terrain height/evaluation分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
王丹,余贞寿..2020年超长梅雨期间新安江流域多模式降水预报评估[J].气象,2025,51(5):581-594,14.基金项目
浙江省气象科技项目(2020ZD06、2022ZD14、2023ZD14)和浙江省自然科学基金联合基金项目(LZJMZ23D050005)共同资助 （2020ZD06、2022ZD14、2023ZD14）
