上海国土资源2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：32-43,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2025.01.006
海南国家生态建设示范区零碳情景分析
Analysis of the net-zero carbon scenario for Hainan National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone
摘要
Abstract
Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality has become the same goal of the international community as global climate change issues become increasingly severe.As a national ecological construction demonstration zone,Hainan is the province with the lowest carbon emission level in China.Due to its unique geographical location and abundant natural resources,it has a great potential to turn into a"zero-carbon"island pilot zone.This study assesses the carbon budget status of Hainan Province from 2012 to 2021 using top-down analysis and intensity statistics,respectively,and predicts carbon scenarios from 2021 to 2060 based on the historical carbon emission data using the STIRPAT model.The results show that Hainan Province's carbon emissions mainly come from energy consumption,especially the use of fossil fuels.Since the contribution of natural ecosystem carbon sinks is currently unclear,Hainan Province needs to further reduce CO2 emissions by about 25.95 to 42.06 million tons/year to achieve the zero-carbon target.With the active guidance and support of government policies,Hainan Province may reach its peak carbon emissions in 2021,at 46.33 million tons of CO2,and reduce carbon emissions to 32.84 million tons and 27.78 million tons in 2030 and 2035,respectively.In 2060,Hainan Province's carbon emissions may be 10.75 to 12.90 million tons of CO2 per year.Theoretically,in addition to ocean and terrestrial inorganic absorption(4.30 to 5.16 million tons of CO2)and terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration(0 to 4.81 million tons of CO2),1.64 to 7.74 million tons of CO2 still need to be removed annually by carbon capture,utilization,and storage technologies.关键词
生态建设/碳中和/零碳岛/STIRPAT模型/碳情景/碳封存Key words
ecological construction/carbon neutrality/zero-carbon island/STIRPAT model/carbon scenario/carbon sequestration分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
次惠岭,李采,何庆成,郭朝斌,张保建..海南国家生态建设示范区零碳情景分析[J].上海国土资源,2025,46(1):32-43,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2244215 （）
U2344226) （）
中国地质调查局项目"重点地区地质碳汇与碳封存资源调查评价"(DD20230119) （DD20230119）
中国地质科学院基本科研业务费项目"自然资源部碳封存与地质储能工程技术创新中心建设与运行"(JKY202413) （JKY202413）
