水科学进展2025，Vol.36Issue(2)：332-344,13.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2025.02.014
未来气候变化下帕隆藏布江流域不同重现期洪水量级的预估
Future design flood projections in the Parlung Zangbo River basin under climate change
摘要
Abstract
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region is rich in water resources.Flood magnitude analysis for different recurrence periods in the context of climate change can provide scientific support for the construction of local water conservancy projects;however,related research remains limited.This study uses the Parlung Zangbo River basin as a case study,integrating the distributed hydrological model VIC-Glacier with interpretable machine-learning methods.Data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and projected glacier change results revealed the future flood magnitudes for near-term(2027-2040),mid-term(2047-2060),and long-term(2087-2100)periods under both moderate(SSP2-4.5)and high(SSP5-8.5)forcing scenarios for different recurrence periods.The results discovered major spatial heterogeneity in flood magnitudes and their change characteristics within the Parlung Zangbo River basin.Under future climate scenarios,decline in glacier coverage and increased precipitation will alter runoff components.In glacier-covered basins,future flood magnitudes for different recurrence periods decreased by 6.46％—32.27％.Conversely,in non-glacier basins,flood magnitudes for different recurrence periods showed a rising trend,with increases of 2.87％—15.52％.关键词
洪水量级/VIC-Glacier模型/随机森林/CMIP6/帕隆藏布江流域Key words
flood magnitude/VIC-Glacier model/random forest/CMIP6/Parlung Zangbo River basin分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
李辰龙,李大洋,王强,付晓花,杨龙,田富强..未来气候变化下帕隆藏布江流域不同重现期洪水量级的预估[J].水科学进展,2025,36(2):332-344,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(92047301 （）
52379012) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.92047301 （）
No.52379012). （）
