厦门大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.64Issue(3)：367-382,16.DOI:10.6043/j.issn.0438-0479.202407010
台湾海峡西岸红树林的气候变化综合风险评估
Comprehensive risk assessment of climate change for mangroves on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Given the increasing threat of sea level rise(SLR)and severe tropical cyclones(TC)to mangroves in the context of climate change,the future changes in the hazard of SLR and TC on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait and their potential impacts on mangroves,as well as the protection and nurturing plans for adapting to climate change,are highly pressing concerns.This study aims to evaluate the comprehensive climate change risk level of SLR and TC threats to mangroves in three provincial-level or higher nature reserves on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait in the future under low,medium,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(RCP2.6,4.5,8.5,referred to as RCPs)by 2030,2050,and 2100,and to propose climate resilience adaptation strategies and measures for mangroves.[Methods]Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)comprehensive risk theory of climate change,a mangrove climate risk assessment index system area was constructed for the study,including the calculation methods for the comprehensive hazard of slow-onset SLR and sudden-onset TC,the exposure and vulnerability of mangroves,and overall risk.Supplementary survey data,remote sensing images,and model simulations were used,with tools such as ArcGIS,Google Earth Engine,and Matlab employed.[Results]1)Under the RCPs scenario,the hazard caused by slow-onset SLR combined with sudden-onset TC increases with time and GHG emission concentration.The rate of increase in the hazard of SLR is significantly higher than that of TC,and SLR is projected to be the dominant threat to mangrove areas along the west coast of the Taiwan Strait in the future.2)The exposure and vulnerability of mangroves on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait,in descending order,are as follows:the Mangrove National Nature Reserve at the Estuary of the Zhangjiang,the Mangrove Provincial Nature Reserve at the Estuary of the Jiulongjiang,and the Provincial Nature Reserve of Wetlands at the Estuary of Quanzhou Bay.Mangroves with high exposure and vulnerability are distributed along the Zhangjiang and in the intertidal zone between the northern and middle ports of the Jiulongjiang.3)The comprehensive risk for mangroves in the three nature reserves increases with time and GHG emission concentration.Under the RCP 8.5 scenario,by 2100,over 97.60％of mangrove forests are projected to be at high or very high risk.The comprehensive risks,in descending order,are the Mangrove Provincial Nature Reserve at the Estuary of the Jiulongjiang,the Provincial Nature Reserve of Wetlands at the Estuary of Quanzhou Bay,and the Mangrove National Nature Reserve at the Estuary of the Zhangjiang.When only considering the impact of SLR,the mangroves in the Mangrove National Nature Reserve at the Estuary of Zhangjiang have the highest submersion risk,with approximately 34.96％of mangroves may be submerged by 2100(RCP8.5).[Conclusion]In summary,by the end of this century,the mangroves on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait will face a high comprehensive risk of climate change.Based on the ecological restoration concept of"natural solutions"and"natural restoration as the mainstay and supplemented artificial intervention",for mangroves with high comprehensive risk levels,the following measures are recommended to improve their adaption to climate change:reforesting native species in damaged or seaward areas,returning ponds to forest on the landside of mangroves,constructing biological shore lines to promote silt accumulation,and enhancing river sediment discharge to increase sand capture and siltation in mangrove wetlands,etc.This study provides scientific references for climate risk management in the region and for mangrove conservation in China.关键词
红树林/海平面上升/热带气旋/风险评估/适应策略Key words
mangrove/sea level rise/tropical cyclone/risk assessment/adaptation strategy分类
海洋学引用本文复制引用
李翠华,丁如一,莫伦柬,颜秀花,蔡榕硕..台湾海峡西岸红树林的气候变化综合风险评估[J].厦门大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,64(3):367-382,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604902) （2017YFA0604902）
福建省自然科学基金(2022J01497) （2022J01497）
