西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.27Issue(3)：37-52,16.
人口老龄化影响中国产业结构升级的作用机制研究
Influence Mechanism of the Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading in China
摘要
Abstract
the Continuous promotion of industrial structure upgrading is an important way to achieve high-quality development in the context of population aging.Using provincial panel data from 1998 to 2022,we study the impact of population aging on China's industrial structure upgrading,and the find out that:population aging will have a significant negative impact on the industrial structure upgrading of the neighboring regions in the early stage due to the"siphon effect",which leads to significant"U"non-linear characteristics of the indirect and total effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading;population aging positively affects industrial structure upgrading by improving consumption structure,expanding consumption scale,and promoting human capital accumulation.However,it also has a blocking effect on industrial structure upgrading by triggering investment decline,labor supply shortage,and labor productivity growth slowdown;regions with a deeper degree of population aging have significantly promoted industrial structure upgrading by promoting consumption and improving human capital levels.In order for population aging to play a positive role in population aging on the upgrading of the regional industrial structure,the Government should solidly promote coordinated regional development,strive to upgrade the consumption structure and expand the scale of consumption,and continue to promote the accumulation of human capital.关键词
人口老龄化/人口红利/产业结构/消费结构/高质量发展/新质生产力Key words
population aging/demographic dividend/industrial structure/consumption structure/high-quality development/new quality productivity分类
社会学引用本文复制引用
邵红梅,丁洪宇,李通屏,段平忠..人口老龄化影响中国产业结构升级的作用机制研究[J].西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,27(3):37-52,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"异质人力资本集聚对经济高质量发展的影响研究"(22BRK001) （22BRK001）
中国地质大学(武汉)教学实验室开放基金项目"区域人口增减分化的特征识别和经济效应研究"(SKJ2024167). （武汉）
