植物保护学报2025，Vol.52Issue(2)：284-293,10.DOI:10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2025.2024074
气候变化下多堆柄锈菌在中国的潜在地理分布预测
Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of southern corn rust pathogen Puccinia polysora in China under climate change
摘要
Abstract
To clarify the potential geographical distribution of Puccinia polysora,the causal agent of southern corn rust,in China,we have used global distribution data and the MaxEnt model to predict its potential suitable habitats under both past and future climate conditions.Key climate factors affecting its distribution have also been analyzed.The results show that the main climatic factors influencing its distribution include the average temperature of the hottest season,average wind speed in December,pre-cipitation during the driest season,climatic seasonality,and average wind speed in July,with relative contributions of 62.0%,14.9%,14.0%,5.0%,and 4.0%,respectively.Under historical climate condi-tions,the potential suitable habitats for P.polysora in China exhibit a tiered distribution,with suitability gradually decreasing from the eastern coastal regions towards the inland areas.Under future climate conditions,the suitable habitats are predicted to expand northward,with an overall increase in habitat area.High-suitability areas are mainly found in southern China and the Huang-Huai-Hai region,while moderate and low-suitability areas are concentrated in the northwest and southwest regions.The predic-tion indicates that the suitable range for P.polysora in China will continue to expand.关键词
多堆柄锈菌/MaxEnt模型/气候变化/潜在地理分布Key words
Puccinia polysora/MaxEnt model/climate change/potential geographical distribution引用本文复制引用
郝文泽,李志红,范在丰,石洁,马占鸿,周涛,张永军,时鸿宇,路一楠,秦誉嘉..气候变化下多堆柄锈菌在中国的潜在地理分布预测[J].植物保护学报,2025,52(2):284-293,10.基金项目
财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-02) （CARS-02）
