干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(6)：981-992,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.03
气候变暖背景下黄土高原≥0℃和≥10℃积温时空变化
Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of integrated temperatures of≥0℃and≥10℃on the Loess Plateau under global climate warming
摘要
Abstract
The Loess Plateau(LP)in China is highly sensitive to climate change,making it an ideal region for un-derstanding temperature dynamics under global warming.This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of integrated temperature indicators for≥0℃and≥10℃—including the first date(FD),ending data(ED),duration(DD),and active integrated temperature(AIT)—using daily average temperature data from 55 meteorological sta-tions on the LP spanning 1960 to 2019.Methods such as linear fitting,mutation tests,and dominance analysis were employed.The results indicate that,from 1960 to 2019,the indicators for both thresholds changed synchro-nously,with an advancing FD,a delayed ED,a prolonged DD,and an increasing AIT(P<0.01).Notably,most in-terdecadal shifts occurred in the 1990s,with abrupt changes concentrated from the late 1990s to the early 2000s.The spatial distribution of mean values for both thresholds was similar,showing that FD advanced,ED delayed,DD prolonged,and AIT increased from northwest to southeast.However,the spatial trends differed:the magni-tude of the ED delay followed an east-west pattern with alternating phases,while the increase in AIT was higher in the east and lower in the west.For the≥0℃threshold,changes in FD,ED,and DD were influenced jointly by latitude and altitude,whereas changes in the other indicators were mainly driven by altitude,with contribution rates between 65.59%and 72.17%.The contribution of FD changes to DD changes was 65.1%for≥0℃and 68.4%for≥10℃,each exhibiting opposite spatial distribution patterns.Compared with 1960-1989,most indica-tors—except DD and AIT for≥0℃and FD for≥10℃—showed significant shifts(in terms of earlier or delayed timing,extended duration,or increased magnitude)during 1990-2019,with more pronounced changes at the≥0℃threshold.Furthermore,the contribution of FD change to DD change decreased by 2.3%for≥0℃but in-creased by 15.2%for≥10℃.Spatially,the variation in contribution rates exhibited a"higher-lower-higher"pat-tern along the south-to-west axis and a contrast with higher values in the southeast and lower in the northwest.Overall,the integrated temperature indicators for both thresholds on the LP show significant responses to climate warming,with distinct regional and temporal characteristics.关键词
活动积温/优势分析法/贡献率/时空变化/黄土高原Key words
integrated temperature/dominance analysis/contribution rate/spatio-temporal variation/the Loess Plateau(LP)引用本文复制引用
安彬,陈文靖,肖薇薇..气候变暖背景下黄土高原≥0℃和≥10℃积温时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(6):981-992,12.基金项目
陕西省教育厅重点科学研究计划项目(24JZ001) （24JZ001）
