结核与肺部疾病杂志2025，Vol.6Issue(3)：304-309,6.DOI:10.19983/j.issn.2096-8493.20250041
2010-2022年西藏自治区肺结核发病时空特征分析
Spatiotemporal analysis on pulmonary tuberculosis in the Xizang Autonomous Region,2010-2022
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in the Xizang Autonomous Region(Xizang)and provide references for formulating PTB prevention and control policies.Methods:The cases of PTB with onset dates between January 1,2010 and December 31,2022,and current residence in Xizang were extracted from"Infectious Disease Surveillance System of the National Health Security Information Project-Disease Prevention and Control Information System".Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the time trend of the incidence rate of PTB,and the annual percentage change(APC)was used to evaluate the change trend.Global autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scan statistic were used to analyze the overall and space-time clusters of PTB in Xizang.The log likelihood ratio(LLR)was used to evaluate the risk within the clustered area relative to outside the area.Results:A total of 60 391 PTB cases were reported in Xizang from 2010 to 2022,with an average reported incidence rate of 141.97 per 100 000 population.The reported incidence rate increased from 118.34 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 182.38 per 100 000 population in 2019(APC=4.56％,95％CI:2.98％—6.18％),and then decreased to 95.96 per 100 000 population in 2022(APC=—16.50％,95％CI:—23.22--9.20％).The increase in female incidence rate from 2010 to 2020(APC=5.45％,95％CI:3.93％—6.99％)was higher than that in male incidence from 2010 to 2019(APC=3.32％,95％CI:2.27％—4.38％).Spatiotemporal scan statistic analysis revealed that the most likely cluster area was identified in Changdu City(LLR=2105.41,P＜0.001),with a clustering period from January 2016 to June 2022.The secondary cluster area was mainly identified in the eastern part of Naqu City(LLR=434.55,P＜0.001)with its clustering period spawning from January 2018 to April 2022.Conclusion:The reported incidence rate of PTB in Xizang from 2010 to 2022 exhibited a trend of initial increase followed by a subsequent decline.The PTB incidence showed significant spatiotemporal aggregation,particularly clustered in Changdu and eastern Nagqu.Future efforts should prioritize strengthening health education and enhancing screening measures for populations in these high-risk regions.关键词
结核,肺/时空聚类分析/发病率/西藏自治区Key words
Tuberculosis,pulmonary/Space-time clustering/Incidence/Xizang autonomous region分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
尼玛曲措,吕恒梁,胡凤梅,张文义,徐元勇..2010-2022年西藏自治区肺结核发病时空特征分析[J].结核与肺部疾病杂志,2025,6(3):304-309,6.基金项目
2024年公共卫生人才支持项目(2024-12-25) Public Health Talent Support Project in 2024(2024-12-25) （2024-12-25）
