解放军医学杂志2025，Vol.50Issue(5)：513-522,10.DOI:10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2096.2025.0401
1990-2021年中国和全球恶性肿瘤疾病负担变化趋势和预测分析
Trends and prediction analysis of the disease burden of malignant tumors in China and the world from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To compare the disease burden and evolving trends of major malignant tumors in China and globally from 1990 to 2021,and conduct predictive analysis,so as to provide a reference for formulating prevention and treatment policies for malignant tumor in China.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021(GBD 2021),descriptive research methods were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of major malignant tumors in China and globally,as well as the changes in their rankings.The Joinpoint log-linear model was applied to analyze trends in age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR)and age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR)of malignant tumors in China and globally from 1990-2021.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was constructed using R 4.4.0 to predict the incidence trends of malignant tumor in China and globally from 2022 to 2035.Results In 2021,there were 17.2294 million new cases of malignant tumors(excluding non-melanoma skin cancer)and 9.7763 million deaths globally,with an ASIR of 201.06/100,000 and ASMR of 115.11/100,000.In China,4.5375 million new cases and 2.7964 million deaths were reported,with ASIR and ASMR of 221.30/100,000 and 136.36/100,000,respectively.Lung cancer ranked first in both incidence and mortality of malignant tumors in China and globally.Female breast cancer had the second-highest ASIR in China.The number of incident cases and deaths from digestive system malignancies included in this study accounted for 42.0%of the total incident cases and 46.8%of the total deaths from all cancers in China,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,the average annual percentage change(AAPC)for overall ASIR of malignant tumors in China was 0.30,while ASMR declined(AAPC:-0.97).Globally,ASIR decreased slightly(AAPC:-0.10),and ASMR declined(AAPC:-0.78).The BAPC model predicted that by 2035,China's ASIR of malignant tumors may rise to 252.44/100,000,whereas the global ASIR is expected to decrease to 183.05/100,000.Conclusions China has achieved some success in cancer prevention and treatment,but still faces a heavy disease burden,with ASIR and ASMR exceeding global averages and ASIR persistently increasing.Cancer prevention and control work such as health education should be strengthened.Precise prevention and control measures should be taken for key cancer types,and preventive interventions should be focused on the elderly population.关键词
恶性肿瘤/发病/死亡/变化趋势/预测分析Key words
malignant tumor/incidence/morality/change trend/predictive analysis分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
金心怡,张颖,钟悦欣,马爽..1990-2021年中国和全球恶性肿瘤疾病负担变化趋势和预测分析[J].解放军医学杂志,2025,50(5):513-522,10.基金项目
This work was supported by the Beijing Municipal Social Science Foundation(24GLC055),and the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(2024-JYB-PY-004) 北京市社会科学基金青年项目(24GLC055) （24GLC055）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2024-JYB-PY-004) （2024-JYB-PY-004）
