交通运输工程与信息学报2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：97-109,13.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.01.015
不同模式重卡运输系统成本分析与关键因素敏感性研究
Cost and sensitivity analyses of key factors for different modes of heavy-duty truck transportation systems
摘要
Abstract
[Background]Electrified roads,as a novel low-carbon/zero-carbon heavy-duty truck transportation system,are essential for achieving"dual-carbon"targets in the transportation sector.However,the economic feasibility of this system relative to other heavy-duty truck transportation modes has not been sufficiently discussed.[Objective]Therefore,a cost model for different modes of heavy-truck transportation systems is constructed to promote the transformation of heavy-truck transportation modes from an economic perspective and promote the sustainable development of road transport.[Methods]The lifecycle cost method is used to integrate the costs of infrastructure construction,vehicles,battery replacement,energy consumption,and maintenance.By performing a sensitivity analysis of the key factors,the cost differences between different heavy-duty truck trans-portation system modes are examined.The cost variation trends for each transportation mode over different operational lifespans are disclosed.[Results]As the number of operational years increases,electrified roads demonstrate substantial advantages owing to their lower energy consumption costs and the gradual amortization of initial construction expenses.In particular,the segmented contact-network installation scheme incurs a low cost.Electricity tariffs and battery prices significantly af-fect the cost of the segmented contact-network installation plan.However,oil-price fluctuations have the most pronounced effect on conventional fuel-based schemes compared with other factors.[Con-clusions]As the cost of fossil fuels increases gradually and the cost of batteries decreases,an electri-fied road system with a segmented catenary erection scheme is show to be optimal for reducing car-bon emissions and transportation costs.关键词
公路运输/重卡运输系统/电气化公路/全生命周期成本法/成本演变/敏感性分析Key words
road transportation/heavy-truck transportation system/electrified road system/life-cy-cle cost method/cost evolution/sensitivity analysis分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
黄成彬,周子伟,徐焱,刘振东,屈海洋,刘文哲..不同模式重卡运输系统成本分析与关键因素敏感性研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2025,23(2):97-109,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(12302048) （12302048）
