气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(2)：11-19,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.002
1982-2022年中国东北地区夏季降水量MODES数据产品预报结果评估
Evaluation of MODES data products for summer precipitation forecasts in Northeast China during 1982-2022
摘要
Abstract
This study evaluates the forecast performance of summer precipitation in Northeast China from four MODES model data products,comprehensive trend anomaly test score(Ps),anomaly sign consistency rate(Pc),anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),and temporal correlation coefficient(TCC).The spatial distribution of a-nomalies between predicted and observed values from each model was analyzed.The results show that MODES da-ta products performed well in predicting anomalous trends of summer precipitation in Northeast China.MODESv2_NCC had the highest number of stations with statistically significant positive correlations between predicted and ob-served summer precipitation,mainly in the Songhua River and Liao River basins,and outperformed other models.The average regional Ps and Pc for all models were 63.0 points and 50.0%,respectively,with MODESv2_ECM-WF achieving the best performance(average Ps:66.4 points,Pc:51.8%).All models performed better in forecas-ting precipitation deficits than surpluses,with MODESv2_NCC,MODESv2_JMA,and MODESv2_NCEP showing good performance for below-normal summer precipitation forecasts in the southern region of the Songliao Basin.关键词
综合检验评分/降水量距平/降水量预报/松辽流域Key words
Comprehensive evaluation score/Precipitation anomaly/Precipitation forecast/Songliao Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曲美慧,涂钢,刘长征,李尚锋,李玉鹏,路增鑫,任航,赵淑红..1982-2022年中国东北地区夏季降水量MODES数据产品预报结果评估[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(2):11-19,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007700、2023YFC3007705、2023YFC3007702)、吉林省气象局技术发展专项(202315、202101)、吉林省科技发展计划项目(20180101016JC)、中国气象局省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目(SSFZ201806)和吉林省科技发展重点研发计划项目(20220203199SF)共同资助. （2023YFC3007700、2023YFC3007705、2023YFC3007702）
