气象与环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(2)：93-100,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.011
基于作物产量历史丰歉气象影响指数的河北省葡萄产量预报对比分析
Comparative analysis of grape yield forecasting in Hebei province based on historical meteorological impact index of crop yield abundance
摘要
Abstract
This study utilizes grape yield data and corresponding meteorological data from Hebei province from 1981 to 2020.Based on the historical meteorological impact index of crop yield abundance,two methods-maximum probability method and weighted average method-were applied to develop grape yield forecasting models for dy-namic yield prediction analysis.Model validation results show that the accuracy rates of yield abundance trend pre-diction were 77.8%and 84.4%for the maximum probability method and the weighted average method,respec-tively,while the quantitative forecasting accuracy rates were83.1%and90.3%,respectively.Model evaluation re-sults indicated that during 15 yield abundance trend forecasts over 5 years,the maximum probability method had 5 errors,while the weighted average method had 3 errors,with quantitative forecasting accuracy rates of 89.9%and 94.0%,respectively.The weighted average method based on the historical meteorological impact index of crop yield abundance performed better in forecasting grape yield in Hebei province.关键词
大概率法/加权平均法/气象资料/动态预报Key words
Maximum probability method/Weighted average method/Meteorological data/Dynamic forecasting分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
李瑞盈,孙丽华,周艳军,魏安琪,魏瑞江..基于作物产量历史丰歉气象影响指数的河北省葡萄产量预报对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2025,41(2):93-100,8.基金项目
气象风险与保险联合开放实验室开放基金项目(2024F014)和河北省气象局科研开发项目(19ky31)共同资助. （2024F014）
