山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.39Issue(5)：15-20,28,7.
基于STIRPAT模型的黄河流域建筑业碳排放预测研究
Research on carbon emission prediction of construction industry in the Yellow River Basin based on STIRPAT model
摘要
Abstract
Analyzing the main influencing factors of the construction industry in the Yellow River Basin and scientifically predicting future carbon emission trends is an important part of achieving ecological pro-tection and high-quality development in this region.The panel data of nine provinces(autonomous re-gions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2021 were selected to analyze the influencing factors based on the extended STIRPAT model,and the forecast models were established to analyze the carbon emission trends under various scenarios.The results show that the total population,urbanization rate,total output value of the construction industry,per capita disposable income,and carbon emission intensity promote the growth of carbon emissions.Conversely,the energy structure inhibits the growth of carbon emissions.Although carbon emissions vary across different scenarios,all scenarios indicate the attainment of carbon peak by 2030.Notably,the scenario of maintaining stable population and economic development together with rapid technological advancements has the most significant carbon reduction effect,which is most conducive to the green and low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin.关键词
黄河流域/建筑业碳排放/STIRPAT模型/情景分析Key words
Yellow River Basin/building carbon emissions/STIRPAT model/scenario analysis分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘馨月,王志强,任金哥,韩硕..基于STIRPAT模型的黄河流域建筑业碳排放预测研究[J].山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,39(5):15-20,28,7.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2024ME173) （ZR2024ME173）
