上海城市规划2025，Vol.181Issue(2)：51-59,9.DOI:10.11982/j.supr.20250207
气候公平性视角下城市洪涝风险的多维驱动机制
Climate Inequality to Urban Flooding Risks Driven by Multidimensional Factors
徐浩文 1周士奇 2耿汐雯 1徐小东3
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院
- 2. 同济大学设计创意学院
- 3. 同济大学上海自主智能无人系统科学中心
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Urban flooding has emerged as a significant challenge for densely populated cities,particularly in the context of increasing extreme rainfall events.This study focuses on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,developing a"hazard-exposure-vulnerability"framework to assess flood risks and resource equity using a variety of data sources.By employing a Bayesian-optimized LightGBM-SHAP method,the study uncovers the mechanisms underlying key disaster-inducing factors.Additionally,the distribution of flood defense resources is evaluated for spatial inequities using the Dagum Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve.The findings indicate that flood risk decreases from coastal to inland areas,with high-risk zones concentrated in core cities and densely riverine regions.There is a pronounced spatial imbalance in the allocation of safety resources,with the fragmentation of planning and infrastructure isolation in emerging areas exacerbating risk exposure.Key disaster drivers shift from topographical and physical factors to hydrological and ecological factors as risk levels rise.Impervious surface rate and vegetation coverage are identified as critical variables influencing overall flood risk.This research integrates risk mechanism analysis with equity-based assessments,offering scientific support and policy recommendations for climate-adaptive urban planning.关键词
城市洪涝/风险测度框架/可解释人工智能/空间公平性/适应性策略Key words
urban flooding/risk assessment framework/explainable artificial intelligence/spatial equality/adaptive strategies分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
徐浩文,周士奇,耿汐雯,徐小东..气候公平性视角下城市洪涝风险的多维驱动机制[J].上海城市规划,2025,181(2):51-59,9.
