气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(3)：317-326,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.276
气候水文预估不确定性量化及约束方法研究进展
Research progress on uncertainty quantification and constraint methods for climate and hydrological projections
摘要
Abstract
Accurately quantifying and reducing the uncertainty of climate and hydrological projections is a prerequisite for subsequent climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategy development.For the quantification of projection uncertainty,the development history of different methods is systematically reviewed,and the realization process and applicability of methods,including the HS09,the L20,and the analysis of variance are stated.Further the necessity and ideas to reduce the model uncertainty are elucidated,and the constraint projection methods are classified into four categories:detecting attribution constraints,weighting constraints,emergent constraints,and correction constraints.The principle of each method are comprehensively introduced,and the characteristics of the constraint methods in terms of the establishment of the relationship,the applicability of the scales and variables,are analyzed.Then the implementation process of testing different constraint methods and evaluating the results are summarized.Finally,the key points that need urgent attention in this field are discussed,and the possible future trends are prospected,with a view to providing reference for improving the accuracy and reliability of climate and hydrological variables projections.关键词
气候变化/气候模式/预估不确定性/约束预估/涌现约束/完美模型检验Key words
Climate change/Climate model/Uncertainty of projection/Constraint projection/Emergent constraint/Perfect Model Test引用本文复制引用
张琴,张利平,李意,刘丽娜,佘敦先,周芷菱,袁喆..气候水文预估不确定性量化及约束方法研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(3):317-326,10.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2024989/SZ) （CKSF2024989/SZ）
国家自然科学基金项目(52279023) （52279023）
武汉市自然科学基金特区计划项目(2024040701010035) （2024040701010035）
工程二三维GIS勘测设计系统关键技术研究(KY94200004) （KY94200004）
