气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(3)：327-339,13.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.267
中国脱贫县破纪录极端天气事件研究
The analysis of record-breaking probability of extreme weather in China's poverty-alleviated counties
摘要
Abstract
Poverty-alleviated regions are particularly vulnerable to reverting back to poverty due to natural disasters.However,there is limited understanding of the potential future risks posed by record-breaking extreme weather in China's poverty-alleviated counties.Data from 22 models,based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 global downscaling climate scenarios and combined with 8 extreme weather indices,were used to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of extreme weather across 832 poverty-alleviated counties and other counties in China.The results are as follows.China faces significant threats from extreme heats.From 1950 to 2014,the frequency of extreme heat events increased rapidly.Under the SSP3-7.0 high-emission scenario,it is projected that 84.82%of Chinese counties will experience a record-breaking possibility greater than 80%for warm nights(TN90p)by 2040,while 83.40%are expected to surpass this threshold for warm days(TX90p)by 2050.Poverty-alleviated counties face a more severe threat from extreme heats than other counties.The record-breaking probability of heatwave(HW)in these counties is significantly higher than in other counties.Between 2030 and 2040,the probability of TX90p record-breaking events in poverty-alleviated counties is projected to exceed 50%,a decade earlier than in other counties.The analysis of compound drought and heatwave(CDHW)events from 1950 to 2014 shows that poverty-alleviated counties west of the Hu Line experienced a growth rate more than ten times that of other regions.The record-breaking probability of CDHW in western poverty-alleviated counties is 1 to 2 times higher than in eastern poverty-alleviated counties in the future.Specifically,poverty-alleviated counties in Xinjiang,western Inner Mongolia,Qinghai,and southern Yunnan are identified as high-risk areas for record-breaking CDHW probabilities.Regions along the Hu-Line(especially its northern and southern flanks),Hainan Island,the coastal zones of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea,and northwestern Xinjiang exhibit significantly higher record-breaking possibility for sequential precipitation-humid heatwave(SFH)events.The study indicates that China's poverty-alleviated counties are more vulnerable to record-breaking extreme weather.To effectively mitigate and adapt to extreme weather,policy recommendations are proposed on water infrastructure,disaster mitigation,catastrophe insurance,and public awareness and education.关键词
气候变化/胡焕庸线/脱贫县/破纪录概率/极端高温/极端降水/复合极端事件Key words
Climate change/Hu Line/China's poverty-alleviated counties/Record-breaking probability/Extreme heat/Extreme precipitation/Compound extreme event引用本文复制引用
陈思达,刘凯,李博浩,汪明..中国脱贫县破纪录极端天气事件研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(3):327-339,13.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费资助(2243300007) （2243300007）
国家自然科学基金(52394232) （52394232）
