气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(3)：340-352,13.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.244
基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估
Climate change projection over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on CMIP6 global climate models
摘要
Abstract
Based on 24 global climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),future climate changes in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project(divided into two parts of the water source and receiving areas)was projected under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.Results show that under different emission scenarios,the annual mean temperature presents a significant increasing trend in the water source and receiving areas,and the annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation(characterized by the maximum daily precipitation)are mainly increasing,with greater magnitude under higher emission scenarios.Relative to 1995-2014,increased annual mean temperature,precipitation and extreme precipitation in the water source and receiving areas at the near(2021-2040),mid(2041-2060)and end(2081-2100)of the 21st century can be found,with greater increase as time progresses.In the future three time periods,relative to 1995-2014,all the models show an increase in the annual mean temperature averaged in the water source and receiving areas,and the consistency among the models is good;The simulated annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation present significant uncertainty,but increases can be mainly observed.Overall,the future changes in precipitation in the water source area are beneficial for the planning and implementation of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.Meanwhile,the uncertainty of the projection should be noted.关键词
南水北调西线工程区/水源区/受水区/气候变化预估Key words
The west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project/Water source area/Water receiving area/Climate change projection引用本文复制引用
石英,徐影,巢清尘,张梦然,韩振宇,王荣..基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(3):340-352,13.基金项目
中国气象局青年创新团队"青藏高原气候变化及其影响"(CMA2023QN16) （CMA2023QN16）
国家气候中心重点创新团队"第三极气候变化监测预估"(NCCCXTD007) （NCCCXTD007）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFA0605002) （2017YFA0605002）
