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《巴黎协定》后主要国家减缓目标制定和履约进展与前景评估

樊星 秦圆圆 丁鸿达 高翔

气候变化研究进展2025,Vol.21Issue(3):414-427,14.
气候变化研究进展2025,Vol.21Issue(3):414-427,14.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.165

《巴黎协定》后主要国家减缓目标制定和履约进展与前景评估

Assessment of major Parties'mitigation target setting and the progress and prospects on mitigation implementation after the Paris Agreement

樊星 1秦圆圆 1丁鸿达 1高翔1

作者信息

  • 1. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

In the outcome of the first Global Stocktake(GST)under the Paris Agreeemnt,the important role of the Paris Agreement is clarified and affirmed in promoting the collective global climate goals and enhancing the climate actions by all Parties,and the significant collective progress made by all Parties is reaffirmed in achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement through the development and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs).Regarding the progress in formulating mitigation targets by Parties to the Paris Agreement,most Parties have proposed 2030 and long-term climate mitigation targets through their NDCs and long-term low-emission development strategies,the types of 2030 mitigation targets and the expressions of long-term net-zero targets are diverse.Through an assessment of the progress and the prospects of major Parties in implementing their 2030 mitigation targets,it is found that the performance and prospects of developed countries in achieving their 2030 targets are not optimistic,and most developed countries still deviate significantly from the track on achieving their targets even with additional measures.The mitigation targets types that chosen by major developing countries are closely related to their own emission stages and characteristics.Based on the latest emission trends,most developing countries are assessed as on track but with a gap between then and their targets.Developing countries are in need for larger scale of financial,technology,and capacity building support to implement and strengthen their mitigation actions.In the target-setting stage,it is recommended that China's subsequent NDCs should comply with the requirements of the Paris Agreement and the global trends,and respond how the NDC is informed by the outcome of GST.During the implementation phase of the agreement,it is recommended that developed countries strengthen their mitigation actions,effectively fulfill their obligations of taking the lead on mitigation,and provide sufficient financial,technology,and capacity building support to developing countries.It is suggested to make good use of the dialogue platform such as the mitigation global dialogue to strengthen the exchange of experiences on mitigation policy measures among all Parties,and to enhance international cooperation in carrying out mitigation actions.

关键词

《巴黎协定》/主要国家/减缓/实施/全球气候治理

Key words

Paris Agreement/Major Parties/Mitigation/Implement/Global climate governance

引用本文复制引用

樊星,秦圆圆,丁鸿达,高翔..《巴黎协定》后主要国家减缓目标制定和履约进展与前景评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(3):414-427,14.

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