数字图书馆论坛2025，Vol.21Issue(4)：61-71,11.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2025.04.007
基于动态网络探测的技术生命周期识别研究
Technology Lifecycle Identification Based on Dynamic Network Detection
摘要
Abstract
Accurately identifying the lifecycle stages of a technology is essential for predicting technological trends,formulating science and technology policies,and guiding corporate strategies.This study proposes a novel technology lifecycle identification method based on dynamic network detection,which integrates dynamic citation networks and co-classification networks.By quantifying network indicators and applying segmented fitting models,the method divides technology lifecycle stages and comprehensively assesses technological development trends.Using thin-film transistor liquid-crystal display(TFT-LCD)and nano-biosensor(NBS)technologies as cases,this study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method and summarizes lifecycle classification rules based on dynamic networks,providing a theoretical and practical reference for technology lifecycle identification.The results indicate that the network-based classification of TFT-LCD and NBS technologies aligns closely with their actual lifecycle stages,albeit with a temporal offset.Furthermore,the dynamic network detection method exhibits a lag window of 2-4 years,consistent with the time delay characteristic of patent disclosures.Compared with traditional S-curve and multi-indicator methods,the dynamic network detection method demonstrates higher robustness and accuracy,reducing dependence on data quality while more precisely reflecting technological development stages.This study offers a novel theoretical framework and practical guidance for identifying and predicting technology lifecycles.关键词
技术生命周期/动态网络/网络分析/引文网络/共类网络Key words
Technology Lifecycle/Dynamic Network/Network Analysis/Citation Network/Co-Classification Network引用本文复制引用
黄颖,袁佳,叶冬梅,张慧..基于动态网络探测的技术生命周期识别研究[J].数字图书馆论坛,2025,21(4):61-71,11.基金项目
本研究得到国家自然科学基金面上项目"多源数据融合视角下技术会聚的形成机制与预测评估研究"(编号:72374162)资助. （编号:72374162）
