台湾农业探索Issue(1)：25-35,11.DOI:10.16006/j.cnki.twnt.2025.01.004
青海省绿色有机农牧业发展系统动力学仿真模拟分析
System Dynamics Simulation and Analysis of the Development of Green and Organic Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Qinghai Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective/Meaning]To simulate the impact policy system of green development in agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province,analyze the various variables affected by government policies,and provide theoretical basis for forming new quality productivity of green organic agriculture and animal husbandry,improving the efficiency of production factor allocation,formulating policies,and enhancing effectiveness.[Method/Process]Using the system dynamics analysis method,a quantitative relationship model was constructed using Vensim PLE software to simulate the green development and policy system of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province.[Results/Conclusions]Based on relevant data from the Qinghai Statistical Yearbook from 2018 to 2022 and empirical data from existing literature research,when the growth rates of 17 production factors were set to 1.02 or 0.98 in the system simulation process,when the compound growth rate of the green agriculture cumulative measurement mechanism was greater than 1,it resulted in a positive increase in the total grain output and total meat output of the year compared to the previous year;On the contrary,when the compound growth rate is less than 1,it leads to a negative increase in the total grain production and total meat production compared to the previous year.关键词
青海省/农牧业绿色发展/系统动力学/仿真模拟Key words
Qinghai Province/green development of agriculture and animal husbandry/system dynamics/Analogue Simulation分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
马睿,陈文烈..青海省绿色有机农牧业发展系统动力学仿真模拟分析[J].台湾农业探索,2025,(1):25-35,11.基金项目
青海省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(23ZCZD007) （23ZCZD007）
2024年度青海民族大学规划重点项目(24GH02) （24GH02）
青海民族大学2024年研究生创新项目(65M2024011) （65M2024011）
