水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(5)：576-586,11.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240392
三峡水库次洪期间降雨特征对洪水过程的影响
Influence of rainfall characteristics on the flooding process during flood events in the Three Gorges Reservoir
摘要
Abstract
Investigating the intrinsic link between rainfall intensity,its spatio-temporal distribution,and the flood process is crucial for enhancing flood forecasting precision,optimizing reservoir operations,and devising flood miti-gation strategies.In order to deepen understanding of the nonlinear response relationship between rainfall characteris-tics and flood processes upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),this study employed mathematical statis-tics,K-means clustering,and random forest models to analyze the interaction between rainfall characteristics and flood processes based on the flow data from the Cuntan station and corresponding basin rainfall data from 2003 to 2020.The study's key findings indicate that the rainfall-driven flood classification method identifies the watershed above Cuntan with five types of rainfall patterns and their corresponding flood processes,and the method can effec-tively differentiate between total flood amount,peak flow and rise-fall ephemeris,which is suitable for watersheds with scarce data.Rainfall intensity and base flow emerge as the principal determinants of floods entering the TGR,contributing 48.45％and 36.25％,respectively,while the impact of rainfall timing differences and spatial distribu-tion is relatively small.Basal flow is the common key factor of total flood volume and peak flood flow,with contribu-tion rates ranging from 20％to 43％,and the contribution of rainfall to total flood volume and peak flood flow is asyn-chronous.This research deepens the comprehension of rainfall characteristics and flood genesis mechanisms in the upper Yangtze River basin,offering a scientific foundation for flood control and disaster reduction efforts in the region and comparable areas.关键词
三峡水库/场次洪水/降雨特征/时空分布/洪水分类Key words
Three Gorges Reservoir/flood events/rainfall characteristics/spatial and temporal distribution/flood classification分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
张为,李昕,翟少军,时玉龙,刘新波,董炳江..三峡水库次洪期间降雨特征对洪水过程的影响[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):576-586,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金长江水科学联合基金项目(U2040218) （U2040218）
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0711633) （0711633）
中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(Q231100333654) （Q231100333654）
