水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(5)：599-610,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240313
一种检测水电机组振动异常的动态区间覆盖方法
A dynamic interval coverage method for detecting abnormal vibration of hydroelectric units
摘要
Abstract
Abnormal detection in hydropower units is crucial for their stable operation.Existing anomaly detection methods based on point predictions often fail to adequately address data instability and model limitations.This paper proposes a dynamic interval coverage method for detecting vibration anomalies in hydroelectric units.Initially,an interval prediction model is constructed using direct interval estimation and quantile loss as the loss function to train the model.A dynamic interval coverage rate is then developed by integrating a sliding window with interval coverage rate of the model evaluation index.Subsequently,the receiver operating characteristic curve is utilized for model e-valuation and optimal threshold determination.This method allows for flexible adjustment of detection intensity through confidence level,sliding window width,and step size.To validate the effectiveness of the proposed meth-od,simulation experiments are conducted using both simulated and real anomaly data of hydroelectric units.The experimental results indicate that this method achieves true positive rates and false positive rates of 1.0 and 0.015,respectively,on simulated dataset,and 0.979 and 0.053 on another,accurately identifying vibration anomalies in hydropower units.This approach provides a new technological means for anomaly detection in hydropower units.关键词
水电机组/异常检测/区间预测/滑动窗口/ROC曲线Key words
hydroelectric units/abnormal detection/interval prediction/sliding window/receiver operating characteristic curve分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
王坤,王绍强,熊星,李昂,邱绪迪,王斌..一种检测水电机组振动异常的动态区间覆盖方法[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):599-610,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52339006) （52339006）
