水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(5)：624-633,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240461
1990-2021年中国消费水量演变特征及影响因素分析
Analysis of the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of water consumption in China from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Assessing the real water use demand from the consumption side is helpful to scientifically understand the pattern of water supply and demand.Based on the input-output data of 190 economies in the world from 1990 to 2021,this paper analyzes the evolution of China's water consumption in the past 30 years by optimizing and improv-ing the calculation method of water use coefficient,and identifies the key driving factors of the change in water con-sumption.The results show that China's virtual water trade changed from net export to net import in 2014.At pres-ent,the virtual water imported by China mainly comes from agricultural products in developing countries,while the virtual water exported mainly flows to light industry and machinery and equipment manufacturing in developed econo-mies.According to China's Water Resources Bulletin,despite a continuous decline in total water consumption since 2013,considering the net import of virtual water,the scale of national water consumption has increased steadily over the past 30 years,reaching 636.32 billion m3 in 2021,exceeding the actual statistical water consumption by 44.3 bil-lion m3.Currently,China's per capita water consumption is 450.5 m3,of which domestic supply contributes 92.7％,while international trade contributes 7.3％.Compared to population growth,consumption levels and water-saving effi-ciency have a more significant impact on changes in water consumption,serving as the dominant factors determining the variation in China's water consumption over the past 30 years.Based on the research findings,this study analyzes the supporting role and potential risks of international trade in safeguarding China's water consumption,and demon-strates the uncertainties associated with the research results.关键词
国际贸易/消费水量/虚拟水/演变特征/不确定性Key words
international trade/water consumption/virtual water/evolution characteristics/uncertainty分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
何国华,赵勇,李雯晴,秦长海,王浩,何凡..1990-2021年中国消费水量演变特征及影响因素分析[J].水利学报,2025,56(5):624-633,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
国家自然科学基金项目(52025093) （52025093）
