系统管理学报2025，Vol.34Issue(5)：1368-1382,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn2097-4558.2025.05.014
碳交易政策下考虑随机需求的企业清洁技术投资及生产决策
Firms' Clean Technology Investment and Production Decisions Considering Stochastic Demand under Carbon Trading Policy
摘要
Abstract
Considering stochastic demand and decision-making preferences,this paper developed a three-stage decision-making model for manufacturing firms under carbon trading policy.This model examines the optimal technology investment and production decisions for firms producing homogeneous products using either clean technology or conventional technology.Additionally,this paper derives a technology investment decision model and a production decision model for risk-neutral firms under stochastic demand scenarios.Following the mean-variance analytical framework,it formulates three optimization models with varying decision preferences.The main findings reveal that the optimal decision for a risk-neutral firm depends on the marginal returns of producing clean products,the cost of technology investment,and the market mean.In contrast,the mean-variance decision-making model,which accounts for downside risk,shows that optimal decisions under different decision preferences systematically deviate from the risk-neutral optimal decisions and exhibit more conservative risk avoidance.Moreover,changes in external contextual factors can even reverse the optimal technology investment decisions.Finally,this paper analyzes the effects of different parameters on the model results and decision deviations using numerical examples,and well validates the conclusions.关键词
清洁技术投资/需求不确定性/均值-方差/决策偏好Key words
clean technology investment/demand uncertainty/mean-variance analysis/decision preferences分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
JIN Shuai,DING Chenchong..碳交易政策下考虑随机需求的企业清洁技术投资及生产决策[J].系统管理学报,2025,34(5):1368-1382,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72071186,11901548) （72071186,11901548）
国家市场监督管理总局科技计划项目(2023MK232) （2023MK232）
