沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(3)：59-68,10.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2410.60002
基于信息量模型的新疆额尔齐斯河流域春季融雪洪水危险性评价
Hazard Assessment of Spring Snowmelt Floods in the Ertix River Basin Using Information Value Model
摘要
Abstract
This study identifies six primary factors that influence the occurrence of snowmelt floods:snow depth,elevation,topographic ruggedness,slope,proximity to water systems,and land use types.By utilizing an information value model integrated with historical disaster data,we quantitatively assessed and mapped the hazards of spring snowmelt floods.The results revealed that spring snowmelt floods predominantly occur in piedmont plains at elevations below 1 500 meters,particularly near rivers and in grasslands,farmlands,and residential zones.Snow depth and proximity to water systems are the most critical factors.Snow depth(40-50 cm)and river proximity(1-2 km)are dominant controls.The average AUC value of 0.86 across five random experimental models validates the effectiveness of the information quantity model in assessing spring snowmelt flood hazards using the six selected key indicators.This study provides a scientific foundation for formulating flood prevention measures and water resource management strategies in the Ertix River Basin.Additionally,it serves as a valuable reference for evaluating snowmelt flood risks in similar regions.关键词
春季/融雪性洪水/信息量模型/危险性评价/额尔齐斯河流域Key words
spring/snowmelt floods/information quantity model/hazard assessment/Ertix River Basin分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
张旭,刘艳,火红,毛炜峄,博尔楠,程红霞..基于信息量模型的新疆额尔齐斯河流域春季融雪洪水危险性评价[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(3):59-68,10.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A121) （2022D01A121）
新疆气象局科技创新项目(MS202205) （MS202205）
"天山英才"培养计划(2023TSYCCX0079) （2023TSYCCX0079）
