沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(3)：79-87,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2305.09002
2021年11月初北方极端寒潮雨雪过程特征及成因分析
Characteristics and Causes of the Extreme Rain and Snow Process by Cold Wave in Northern China in Early November 2021
摘要
Abstract
The characteristics and causes of the extreme rain and snow process brought by a cold wave from November 5 to 8,2021 in China are comprehensively analyzed by using multi-source observations and forecast data.The results show that:the total accumulated amount and intensity of the rain and snow with long duration and thick snow depth in northern China were both historically rare in the early winter.Precipitation,snowfall and snow depth in many places reached or exceeded historical extreme values during November.The extreme rain and snow were caused by several combined factors.One was the continuous and profound updraft coupled by high-level divergence,mid-level convergence uplift and low-level near-surface frontogenesis under an unusually strong atmospheric barocline environment,another was the unusually strong water vapor transported by the low-level southerly jet and the easterly jet near the northern part of the Western Pacific tropical disturbance,and the other one was the local atmospheric unstable convection and the slow movement of surface cyclones.The dynamical and water vapor conditions of the process were obviously stronger than those of other rain and snow processes.Regional differences were found in the formation of heavy precipitation centers.The heavy precipitation centers located in the southern part of north China,the northern part of Huanghuai region and the southern part of northeast China were caused by a combination of large-scale dynamic uplift,abundant water vapor transport and unstable convection,while the heavy precipitation centers in the southeast part of Inner Mongolia were mainly caused by long-term stable and large-scale precipitation synoptic circulation.The numerical models provided a good forecasting ability for extreme precipitation forecast,while the forecast deviations still existed.Therefore,the analysis of precipitation causes and extreme value forecast can partly give some guidance to future similar extreme processes.关键词
强降水/暴雪/积雪深度/极端性/预报检验Key words
heavy precipitation/snowstorm/snow depth/extremity/forecast verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孟庆涛,周宁芳,罗琪,杨琨,任宏昌,宫宇..2021年11月初北方极端寒潮雨雪过程特征及成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(3):79-87,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41575090) （41575090）
