摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the risk factors of malnutrition in elderly patients with colorectal cancer(CRC)undergoing chemotherapy,and to construct a predictive model and verify it.Methods The data of 60 elderly patients with CRC who underwent chemotherapy in our hospital from March 2022 to Februar-y 2023(modeling group)were retrospectively reviewed.According to the malnutrition diagnostic criteria of the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism(ESPEN),the patients were divided into the malnutrition group and the normal nutrition group.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression a-nalysis were used to analyze the risk factors of malnutrition and construct a risk model.Total 60 elderly patients with CRC who received chemotherapy in our hospital from March 2023 to February 2024 were ran-domly selected as the verification group.The predictive effect of the established risk model was verified by Hosmer Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).Results There was no sta-tistically significant difference in the general information and clinical data between the modeling group and the verification group(P＞0.05).Univariate analysis showed that age,tumor clinical stage,family monthly income,body mass index(BMI),upper arm muscle circumference,24-hour protein and total en-ergy intake were the influencing factors of malnutrition in elderly patients with CRC undergoing chemo-therapy(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age,family monthly income＜5,000 yuan,and tumor stage Ⅳ were independent risk factors for malnutrition(P＜0.05),and high protein intake was a protective factor(P＜0.05).A clinical prediction model was constructed based on the above factors.Hosmer Lemeshow test showed that the model calibration was good(x2=4.579,P=0.647),the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.835,the sensitivity was 83.63％,and the specificity was 85.13％.Conclusion Advanced age,family monthly income＜5,000 yuan,and tumor stage Ⅳ are independent risk factors for malnutrition in elderly patients with CRC undergoing chemothera-py.The clinical risk model established based on these factors has a good predictive performance and has certain reference value.关键词
结直肠癌/老年/营养不良/危险因素/风险预测Key words
Colorectal cancer/Elderly/Malnutrition/Risk factors/Risk prediction
