地质通报2025，Vol.44Issue(5)：825-836,12.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2023.08.036
基于深部位移的滑坡预警预报方法
Method of landslide early warning and prediction based on deep displacement:A case study of a super large landslide in the reservoir area of a hydropower station in Yunnan
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The mechanism of super large landslides in hydropower station reservoir areas is extremely complex.It is difficult to accurately predict the deformation stage of landslides using existing early warning and prediction methods.[Methods]In order to conduct more accurate early warning and prediction research on it,this article adopts the borehole deep displacement monitoring method.An improved early warning indicator of kinetic energy and kinetic energy change rate for inclinometers was proposed,which based on the monitoring principle of inclinometers.On the basis of deep displacement monitoring data of the DH super large landslide,the trend and time limit values of cumulated displacement depth curve,deformation rate,deformation acceleration,kinetic energy and its variation rate were analyzed.A method was established to identify the stages of landslide deformation evolution.[Results]The research results indicate that landslides have multiple sliding surfaces in different zones,and there is an overall sliding trend above the landslide sliding surface.During the process of landslide from uniform deformation stage to accelerated deformation stage,the rate of kinetic energy change significantly increases and fluctuates significantly.The identification method for landslide deformation evolution stages based on deep displacement kinetic energy and kinetic energy change rate warning indicators is established.[Conclusions]This method is more accurate in dividing each stage and identifying warning time compared to the rate and acceleration curves.Not only can it better identify the deformation stage of super lager landslides in hydropower station reservoir areas,but it can also provide a reference basis for determining the deformation stage of such landslides.关键词
水电站库区/特大型滑坡/深部位移/预警指标/变形阶段识别Key words
hydropower station reservoir area/super large landslide/deep displacement/early warning indicators/identification of deformation stage分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭延辉,黄友鹏,张亮,国铁霖,李玉,矫文琦..基于深部位移的滑坡预警预报方法[J].地质通报,2025,44(5):825-836,12.基金项目
云南省基础研究计划重点项目(编号:202501AS070107)、云南省基础研究计划面上项目(编号:202301AT070454)、云南省兴滇英才支持计划青年人才专项项目(编号:KKXX202467043)、昆明理工大学省级人才培养基金项目(编号:KKZ3202367014)、国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目(编号:2021106740085,2021106740086) （编号:202501AS070107）
